Click for files (mostly in pdf format).

• [2008] A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models. {\em Annals of Applied Statistics}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman, Aleks Jakulin, Maria Grazia Pittau, and Yu-Sung Su)

• [2008] Teaching Bayesian applied statistics to graduate students in political science, sociology, public health, education, economics, ... {\em American Statistician} {\bf 62}, 202--205. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Objections to Bayesian statistics (with discussion). {\em Bayesian Analysis}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] A simple scheme to improve the efficiency of referenda. {\em Journal of Public Economics}, to appear. (Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Splitting a predictor at the upper quarter or third and the lower quarter or third. {\em American Statistician}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman and David Park)

• [2008] Partisans without constraint: political polarization and trends in American public opinion. {\em American Journal of Sociology}, to appear. (Delia Baldassarri and Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Game theory as ideology: some comments on Robert Axelrod's ``The Evolution of Cooperation.'' {\em QA-Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Estimating incumbency advantage and its variation, as an example of a before/after study (with discussion). {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman and Zaiying Huang)

• [2008] Diagnostics for multivariate imputations. {\em Applied Statistics}, to appear. (Kobi Abayomi, Andrew Gelman, and Marc Levy)

• [2008] Should the Democrats move to the left on economic policy? {\em Annals of Applied Statistics}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman and Cexun Jeffrey Cai)

• [2008] Predicting and dissecting the seats-votes curve in the 2006 U.S. House election. {\em PS: Political Science \& Politics}, to appear. (John Kastellec, Andrew Gelman, and Jamie Chandler)
  Data and code for replicating this paper.

• [2008] Scaling regression inputs by dividing by two standard deviations. {\em Statistics in Medicine}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Rich state, poor state, red state, blue state: What's the matter with Connecticut? {\em Quarterly Journal of Political Science} {\bf 2}, 345--367. (Andrew Gelman, Boris Shor, Joseph Bafumi, and David Park)

• [2007] The New York City Puerto Rican asthma project: study design, methods, and baseline results. {\em Journal of Asthma} {\bf 45}, 51--57. (Luis Acosta, Dolores Acevedo-García, Matthew S. Perzanowski, Robert Mellins, Lindsay Rosenfeld, Dharma Cortes, Andrew Gelman, Joanne K. Fagan, Luis A. Bracero, Juan C. Correa, Ann Marie Reardon, and Ginger L. Chew)

• [2007] Thoughts inspired by Nassim Taleb's `Fooled by Randomness' and `The Black Swan'. {\em Law, Probability and Risk}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Bayesian hierarchical classes analysis. {\em Psychometika}, to appear. (Iwin Leenen, Iven Van Mechelen, Andrew Gelman, and Stijn De Knop)

• [2007] Using redundant parameters to fit hierarchical models. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman, Zaiying Huang, David van Dyk, and W. John Boscardin)

• [2007] A catch-22 in assigning primary delegates. {\em Chance}, to appear.(Howard Wainer and Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Discussion of ``Bayesian checking of the second levels of hierarchical models,'' by M. J. Bayarri and M. E. Castellanos. {\em Statistical Science}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Weight loss, self-experimentation, and web trials: a mutual interview. {\em Chance}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman and Seth Roberts)

• [2007] Manipulating and summarizing posterior simulations using random variable objects. {\em Statistics and Computing}. (Jouni Kerman and Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative? {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 17}, 422--426. (Andrew Gelman and Aleks Jakulin)

• [2007] Letter to the editors regarding some papers of Dr. Satoshi Kanazawa. {\em Journal of Theoretical Biology} {\bf 245}, 597--599. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Struggles with survey weighting and regression modeling (with discussion). {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 22}, 153--164. (Andrew Gelman)
  Rejoinder to discussion. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 22}, 184--188. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Average predictive comparisons for models with nonlinearity, interactions, and variance components. {\em Sociological Methodology}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman and Iain Pardoe)

• [2007] Voting as a rational choice: why and how people vote to improve the well-being of others. {\em Rationality and Society}, to appear. (Aaron Edlin, Andrew Gelman, and Noah Kaplan)

• [2007] An analysis of the NYPD's stop-and-frisk policy in the context of claims of racial bias. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}, to appear. (Andrew Gelman, Jeffrey Fagan, and Alex Kiss)

• [2007] Evaluation of multilevel decision trees. {\em Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference} {\bf 137}, 1151--1160. (Erwann Rogard, Andrew Gelman, and Hao Lu)

• [2007] Review of ``Regression Analysis: A Constructive Critique,'' by Richard Berk. {\em Criminal Justice Review} {\bf 32}, 301--302. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Tools for Bayesian data analysis in R. {\em Statistical Computing and Graphics} {\bf 17} (2), 9--13. (Jouni Kerman and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] The difference between ``significant'' and ``not significant'' is not itself statistically significant. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 60}, 328--331. (Andrew Gelman and Hal Stern)

• [2006] Weighted classical variogram estimation for data with clustering. {\em Technometrics}. (Cavan Reilly and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Analysis of variance. In {\em New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics}, second edition. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Targeting low-arsenic groundwater with mobile-phone technology in Araihazar, Bangladesh. {\em Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition}. (Alexander van Geen, Matilde Trevisani, John Immel, M. Jakariya, N. Osman, Z. Cheng, Alexander Pfaff, Andrew Gelman, and K. M. Ahmed)
  Figures for this paper

• [2006] Bayesian measures of explained variance and pooling in multilevel (hierarchical) models. {\em Technometrics} {\bf 48}, 241--251. (Andrew Gelman and Iain Pardoe)

• [2006] Validation of software for Bayesian models using posterior quantiles. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics} {\em 15}, 675--692. (Samantha Cook, Andrew Gelman, and Donald B. Rubin)

• [2006] Bayesian data analysis using R. {\em R News}. (Jouni Kerman and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Bayesian software validation. {\em R News}. (Samantha Cook and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Visualization in Bayesian data analysis. In {\em Handbook of Computational Statistics, vol.\ III: Data Visualization}. (Jouni Kerman, Andrew Gelman, Tian Zheng, and Yuejing Ding)

• [2006] The boxer, the wrestler, and the coin flip: a paradox of robust Bayesian inference and belief functions. {\em The American Statistician} {\bf 60}, 146--150. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models. {\em Bayesian Analysis} {\bf 1}, 515--533. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Fuzzy and Bayesian p-values and u-values. Discussion of ``Fuzzy and randomized confidence intervals and p-values,'' by Charles Geyer and Glenn Meeden. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 20}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] "How many people do you know in prison?": using overdispersion in count data to estimate social structure in networks. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 101}, 409--423. (Tian Zheng, Matthew Salganik, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Multilevel modeling: what it can and can't do. {\em Technometrics} {\bf 48}, 241--251. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Output assessment for Monte Carlo simulations via the score statistic. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics} {\bf 15}, 178--206. (Yanan Fan, Steve Brooks, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] State-level opinions from national surveys: poststratification using multilevel logistic regression. In {\em Public Opinion in State Politics}, ed.\ J. E. Cohen. Stanford University Press. (David K. Park, Andrew Gelman, and Joseph Bafumi)

• [2005] Two-stage regression and multilevel modeling: a commentary. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 13}, 459--461. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Anova as a tool for structuring and understanding hierarchical models. Discussion of an article by C. E. McCulloch. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] An experimental study of storable votes. {\em Games and Economic Behavior} {\bf 57}, 123--154. (Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman, and Thomas R. Palfrey)

• [2005] R2WinBUGS: a package for running WinBUGS from R. {\em Journal of Statistical Software} {\bf 12} (3). (Sibylle Sturtz, Uwe Ligges, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] A course on teaching statistics at the university level. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 59}, 4--7. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Probabilistic feature analysis of facial perception of emotions. {\em Applied Statistics} {\bf 54}, 781--793. (Michel Meulders, Paul De Boeck, Ivan Van Mechelen, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Analysis of variance: why it is more important than ever (with discussion). {\em Annals of Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Practical issues in implementing and understanding Bayesian ideal point estimation. {\em Political Analysis}. (Joseph Bafumi, Andrew Gelman, David K. Park, and Noah Kaplan)

• [2005] Should you measure the radon concentration in your home? In {\em Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown}, fourth edition. (Phillip N. Price and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Multiple imputation for model checking: completed-data plots with missing and latent data. {\em Biometrics}. (Andrew Gelman, Iven Van Mechelen, Geert Verbecke, Daniel F. Heitjan, and Michel Meulders)

• [2004] Reliability of a commercial kit to test groundwater for arsenic in Bangladesh. {\em Environmental Science and Technology}. (A. van Geen, Z. Cheng, A. A. Seddique, M. A. Hoque, A. Gelman, J. H. Graziano, H. Ahsan, F. Parvez, and K. M. Ahmed)

• [2004] Direct data manipulation for local decision analysis, as applied to the problem of arsenic in drinking water from tube wells in Bangladesh. {\em Risk Analysis} {\bf 24}, 1597--1612. (Andrew Gelman, Matilde Trevisani, Hao Lu, and Alexander van Geen)

• [2004] Bayesian multilevel estimation with poststratification: state-level estimates from national polls. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 12}, 375--385. (David K. Park, Andrew Gelman, amd Joseph Bafumi)

• [2004] Treatment effects in before-after data. In {\em Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from an Incomplete Data Perspective}, ed.\ A. Gelman and X. L. Meng, chapter 18. London: Wiley. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Using image and curve registration for measuring the goodness of fit of spatial and temporal predictions. {\em Biometrics} {\bf 60}, 954--964. (Cavan Reilly, Phillip Price, Andrew Gelman, and Scott A. Sandgathe)

• [2004] A broken system: the persistent pattern of reversals of death sentences in the United States. {\em Journal of Empirical Legal Studies}. (Andrew Gelman, James Liebman, Valerie West, and Alex Kiss)

• [2004] 55,000 residents desperately need your help! {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Exploratory data analysis for complex models (with discussion). {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)
  Discussion of this paper by Andreas Buja. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andreas Buja)
  Rejoinder to discussion. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Bayesian analysis of serial dilution assays. {\em Biometrics}. (Andrew Gelman, Ginger Chew, and Michael Shnaidman)

• [2004] Standard voting power indexes don't work: an empirical analysis. {\em British Journal of Political Science} {\bf 34}, 657--674. (Andrew Gelman, Jonathan N. Katz, and Joseph Bafumi)

• [2004] Extension of the isobolographic approach to interactions studies between more than two drugs: illustration with the convulsant interaction between pefloxacin, norfloxacin, and theophylline in rats. {\em Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences} {\bf 93}, 553--562. (Celine Brochot, Sandrine Marchand, William Conet, Andrew Gelman, and Frederic Y. Bois)

• [2004] Parameterization and Bayesian modeling. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 99}, 537--545. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Empirically evaluating the electoral college. In {\em Rethinking the Vote: The Politics and Prospects of American Election Reform}, ed.\ A. N. Crigler, M. R. Just, and E. J. McCaffery, 75--88. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman, Jonathan H. Katz, and Gary King)

• [2003] Forming voting blocs and coalitions as a prisoner's dilemma: a possible theoretical explanation for political instability. {\em Contributions to Economic Analysis and Policy} {\bf 2} (1), article 13. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] A Bayesian formulation of exploratory data analysis and goodness-of-fit testing. {\em International Statistical Review}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] Sampling variances for surveys with weighting, poststratification, and raking. {\em Journal of Official Statistics}. (Hao Lu and Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] Spatial variability of arsenic in 6000 tube wells in a 25 km$^2$ area of Bangladesh. {\em Water Resources Research} {\bf 39} (5), 1140. (Van Geen, A., Zheng, Y., Versteeg, R., Stute, M., Horneman, A., Dhar, R., Steckler, M., Gelman, A., Small, C., Ahsan, H., Graziano, J. H., Hussein, I., and Ahmed, K. M.)

• [2003] A Bayesian approach to the selection and testing of latent class models. {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 13}, 423--442. (Johannes Berkhof, Iven Van Mechelen, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] Regression models for decision making: a cost-benefit analysis of incentives in telephone surveys. {\em Journal of Business and Economic Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman, Matt Stevens, and Valerie Chan)

• [2002] The mathematics and statistics of voting power. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 17}, 420--435. (Andrew Gelman, Jonathan N. Katz, and Francis Tuerlinckx)

• [2002] Promotion of well-switching to mitigate the arsenic crisis in Bangladesh. {\em Bulletin of the World Health Organization} {\bf 80}, 732--737. (A. van Geen, H. Ahsan, A. Horneman, R. K. Dhar, Y. Zheng, A. Z. M. I. Hussain, K. M. Ahmed, A. Gelman, M. Stute, H. J. Simpson, S. Wallace, C. Small, M. F. Parvez, V. Slavkovich, N. J. LoIacono, M. Becker, Z. Cheng, H. Momotaj, M. Shahnewaz, A. A. Seddique, and J. Graziano)

• [2002] Mechanistic understanding of models for educational assessments. Discussion of ``On the structure of educational assessments,'' by Mislevy et al. {\em Measurement:  Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives} {\bf 1}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] Let's practice what we preach: turning tables into graphs. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 56}, 121--130. (Andrew Gelman, Cristian Pasarica, and Rahul Dodhia)

• [2002] Prior distribution. {\em Encyclopedia of Environmetrics} {\bf 3}, 1634--1637. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] Posterior distribution. {\em Encyclopedia of Environmetrics} {\bf 3}, 1627--1628. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] Voting, fairness, and political representation (with discussion). {\em Chance} {\bf 15} (3), 22--26. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] You can load a die but you can't bias a coin. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 56}, 308--311. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2002] Some statistical sampling and data collection activities. {\em The Mathematics Teacher}. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2002] A class project in survey sampling. {\em College Teaching}. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2002] A probability model for golf putting. {\em Teaching Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2001] Using conditional distributions for missing-data imputation. Discussion of ``Conditionally specified distributions,'' by Arnold et al. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 3}, 268--269. (Andrew Gelman and T. E. Raghunathan)

• [2001] Bayesian inference with probability matrix decomposition models). {\em Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics} {\bf 26}, 153--179. (Michel Meulders, Paul De Boeck, Iven Van Mechelen, Andrew Gelman, and Eric Maris)

• [2001] Alternative models for longitudinal binary outcome data: a case study on their choice, interpretation and checking. {\em Biostatistics} {\bf 2}, 397--416. (John B. Carlin, C. Hendricks Brown, Andrew Gelman, and Rory Wolfe)

• [2001] Analysis of large-scale social surveys. {\em International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral Sciences}. (Elaine Zanutto and Andrew Gelman)

• [2001] Post-stratification without population level information on the post-stratifying variable, with application to political polling. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 96}, 1--11. (Cavan Reilly, Andrew Gelman, and Jonathan Katz)

• [2001] Models, assumptions, and model checking in ecological regressions. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A} {\bf 164}, 101--118. (Andrew Gelman, Stephen Ansolabehere, Phillip N. Price, David K. Park, and Lorraine C. Minnite)

• [2001] Poststratification and weighting adjustments. In {\em Survey Nonresponse}, ed.\ R. Groves, D. Dillman, J. Eltinge, and R. Little. (Andrew Gelman and John B. Carlin)

• [2000] Discussion of ``Inference in molecular population genetics,'' by M. Stephens and P. Donnelly. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Stephen Brooks and Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Optimization and simulation transfer algorithms. Discussion of ``Optimization transfer using surrogate objective functions,'' by K. Lange, D. R. Hunter, and I. Yang. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Simulation modeling for cost estimation. In {\em Current Directions in Postal Reform}, ed.\ M. A. Crew and P. R. Kleindorfer, 171--193. Boston: Kluwer. (Richard Waterman, Donald Rubin, Neal Thomas, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Bayesiaanse variantieanalyse. {\em Kwantitative Methoden} {\bf 21}, 5--12. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Should we take measurements at an intermediate design point? {\em Biostatistics} {\bf 1}, 27--34. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] A method for quantifying artifacts in mapping methods, illustrated by application to headbanging. {\em Statistics in Medicine} {\bf 19}, 2309--2320. (Andrew Gelman, Phillip N. Price, and Chia-yu Lin)

• [2000] Type S error rates for classical and Bayesian single and multiple comparison procedures. {\em Computational Statistics} {\bf 15}, 373--390. (Andrew Gelman and Francis Tuerlinckx)

• [2000] Bayesian probabilistic extensions of a deterministic classification model. {\em Computational Statistics}, {\bf 15}, 355--371. (Iwin Leenen, Iven Van Mechelen, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Diagnostic checks for discrete-data regression models using posterior predictive simulations. {\em Applied Statistics} {\bf 49}, 247--268. (Andrew Gelman, Yuri Goegebeur, Francis Tuerlinckx, and Iven Van Mechelen)

• [2000] Some class-participation demonstrations for introductory probability and statistics. {\em Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics} {\bf 25}, 84--100. (Andrew Gelman and Mark Glickman)

• [1999] Analysis of local decisions using hierarchical modeling, applied to home radon measurement and remediation (with discussion). {\em Statistical Science}, {\bf 14}, 305--337. (Chia-Yu Lin, Andrew Gelman, Phillip N. Price, and David H. Krantz)

• [1999] Optimal design for a study of butadiene toxicokinetics in humans. {\em Toxicological Sciences}. (Frederic Y. Bois, Thomas J. Smith, Andrew Gelman, Ho-Yuan Chang, and Andrew E. Smith)

• [1999] Evaluating and using statistical methods in the social sciences. Discussion of ``A critique of the Bayesian information criterion,'' by D. Weakliem. {\em Sociological Methods and Research} {\bf 27}, 403--410. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1999] All maps of parameter estimates are misleading. {\em Statistics in Medicine} {\bf 18}, 3221--3234. (Andrew Gelman and Phillip N. Price)

• [1998] Discussion of ``Quantifying surprise in the data and model verification,'' by M. J. Bayarri and J. O. Berger. {\em Bayesian Statistics 6}. (Xiao-Li Meng and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Discussion of ``Bayesian projection of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic,'' by D. De Angelis, W. R. Gilks, and N. E. Day. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman and John B. Carlin)

• [1998] Discussion of ``Some algebra and geometry for hierarchical models, applied to diagnostics,'' by J. H. Hodges. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman and Phillip N. Price)

• [1998] Some issues in monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. {\em Computing Science and Statistics}. (Stephen Brooks and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Improving upon probability weighting for household size. {\em Public Opinion Quarterly} {\bf 62}, 398--404. (Andrew Gelman and Thomas C. Little)

• [1998] Generalizing the probability matrix decomposition model: an example of Bayesian model checking and model expansion. In {\em Assumptions, Robustness, and Estimation Methods in Multivariate Modeling}, ed.\ J. Hox. (Michel Meulders, Andrew Gelman, Iven Van Mechelen, and Paul De Boeck)

• [1998] Simulating normalizing constants: from importance sampling to bridge sampling to path sampling. {\em Statistical Science}. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1998] General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Stephen Brooks and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Modeling differential nonresponse in sample surveys. {\em Sankhya} {\bf 60}, 101--126. (Thomas C. Little and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Not asked and not answered: multiple imputation for multiple surveys (with discussion). {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 93}, 846--874. (Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and Chuanhai Liu)

• [1998] Rejoinder to discussion of "Not asked and not answered: multiple imputation for multiple surveys. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 93}, 869--874. (Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and Chuanhai Liu)

• [1998] Estimating the probability of events that have never occurred: When is your vote decisive? {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 93}, 1--9. (Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and John Boscardin)

• [1998] Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice: a roundtable discussion. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 52}, 93--100. (Robert E. Kass, Bradley P. Carlin, Andrew Gelman, and Radford M. Neal)

• [1998] Some class-participation demonstrations for decision theory and Bayesian statistics. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 52}, 167--174. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1997] Discussion of ``Analysis of non-randomly censored ordered categorical longitudinal data from analgesic trials,'' by L. B. Sheiner, S. L. Beal, and A. Dunne. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}. (Andrew Gelman and Frederic Y. Bois)

• [1997] Discussion of ``The EM algorithm---an old folk-song sung to a fast new tune,'' by X. L. Meng and D. Van Dyk. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1997] Poststratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression. {\em Survey Methodology} {\bf 23}, 127--135. (Andrew Gelman and Thomas C. Little)

• [1997] How can statistical theory help with statistical practice? Example of a Bayesian analysis in toxicokinetics. In {\em Good Statistical Practice. Proceedings of the 12th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling}, ed.\ C. E. Minder and H. Friedl, 61--70. Wien: Austrian Statistical Society. (Andrew Gelman and Frederic Y. Bois)

• [1997] Weak convergence and optimal scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms. {\em Annals of Applied Probability} {\bf 7}, 110--120. (Gareth O. Roberts, Andrew Gelman, and Walter R. Gilks)

• [1997] Walking to school and traffic exposure in Australian children. {\em Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health} {\bf 21}, 286--292. (John B. Carlin, Mark R. Stevenson, Ian Roberts, Catherine M. Bennett, Andrew Gelman, and Terry Nolan)

• [1997] Using exams for teaching concepts in probability and statistics. {\em Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics} {\bf 22}, 237--243. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Discussion of ``Hierarchical generalized linear models,'' by Y. Lee and J. A. Nelder. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Physiological pharmacokinetic analysis using population modeling and informative prior distributions. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 91}, 1400--1412. (Andrew Gelman, Frederic Y. Bois, and Jiming Jiang)

• [1996] Bayesian analysis of election surveys and forecasts. Discussion of ``Probing public opinion: the state of Valencia experience,'' by J. Bernardo. In {\em Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics 3}, ed.\ C. Gatsonis, J. S. Hodges, R. E. Kass, and N. D. Singpurwalla. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in biostatistics. {\em Statistical Methods in Medical Research} {\bf 5}, 339--355. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1996] Bayesian prediction of mean indoor radon concentrations for Minnesota counties. {\em Health Physics} {\bf 71}, 922--936. (Phillip N. Price, Anthony V. Nero, and Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Population toxicokinetics of tetrachloroethylene. {\em Archives of Toxicology} {\bf 70}, 347--355. (Frederic Y. Bois, Andrew Gelman, Jiming Jiang, Don Maszle, and George Alexeef)

• [1996] Posterior predictive assessment of model fitness via realized discrepancies (with discussion). {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 6}, 733--807. (Andrew Gelman, Xiao-Li Meng, and Hal S. Stern)

• [1996] Advantages of conflictual redistricting. In {\em Fixing the Boundaries: Defining and Redefining Single-Member Electoral Districts}, ed.\ I. McLean and D. Butler. Aldershot, England: Dartmouth Publishing Company, 207--217. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King) [ASCII file]

• [1996] Bayesian model-building by pure thought: some principles and examples. {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 6}, 215--232. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Bayesian regression with parametric models for heteroscedasticity. {\em Advances in Econometrics} {\bf 11}, A87--109. (W. John Boscardin and Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Efficient Metropolis jumping rules. In {\em Bayesian Statistics 5}, ed.\ J. Bernardo et al., 599--607. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman, Gareth O. Roberts, and Walter R. Gilks)

• [1995] Review of {\em Handbook of Statistical Modeling for the Social and Behavioral Sciences}, ed.\ G. Arminger, C. C. Clogg, and M. E. Sobel. {\em Contemporary Sociology} {\bf 24} 712--714. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1995] Discussion of ``Fractional Bayes factors for model comparison,'' by A. O'Hagan. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 57}, 131. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1995] Discussion of ``Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty,'' by D. Draper. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 57}, 83. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1995] Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research. Discussion of ``Bayesian model selection in social research,'' by A. Raftery. {\em Sociological Methodology 1995}, 165--173. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1995] Pre-election survey methodology: details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992. {\em Public Opinion Quarterly} {\bf 59}, 98--132. (D. Stephen Voss, Andrew Gelman, and Gary King)

• [1995] Method of moments using Monte Carlo simulation. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics} {\bf 3}, 36--54. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1995] Inference and monitoring convergence. In {\em Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo}, ed.\ W. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. Spiegelhalter, 131--143. London: Chapman and Hall. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1995] Model checking and model improvement. In {\em Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo}, ed.\ W. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. Spiegelhalter, 189--201. London: Chapman and Hall. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1995] Racial fairness in legislative redistricting. In {\em Classifying by Race}, ed.\ P. E. Peterson, 85--110. Princeton University Press. (Gary King, John M. Bruce, and Andrew Gelman)

• [1994] Discussion of ``A probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of party support in multiparty elections,'' by S. Merrill. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 89}, 1198. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1994] Discussion of ``Approximate Bayesian inference and the weighted likelihood bootstrap,'' by M. A. Newton and A. E. Raftery. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 56}, 37. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1994] Enhancing democracy through legislative redistricting. {\em American Political Science Review} {\bf 88}, 541--559. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1994] Party competition and media messages in U.S. Presidential elections. In {\em The Parties Respond}, second edition, ed.\ L. S. Maisel, 255--195. Westview Press. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1994] A unified model for evaluating electoral systems and redistricting plans. {\em American Journal of Political Science} {\bf 38}, 514--554. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1993] Assessing uncertainty in backprojection. Discussion of ``Backcalculation of HIV infection rates,'' by P. Bacchetti, M. R. Segal, and N. P. Jewell. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 8}, 104--106. (with John B. Carlin) (John B. Carlin and Andrew Gelman)

• [1993] Review of {\em Forecasting Elections}, by M. S. Lewis-Beck and T. W. Rice. {\em Public Opinion Quarterly} {\bf 57}, 119--121. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1993] Discussion of ``Bayesian computation via the Gibbs sampler and related Markov chain methods,'' by A. F. M. Smith and G. O. Roberts. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 55}, 73. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1993] Why are American Presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable? {\em British Journal of Political Science} {\bf 23}, 409--451. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1993] Characterizing a joint probability distribution by conditionals. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 55}, 185--188. (Andrew Gelman and T. P. Speed)

• [1992] Discussion of ``Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments,'' by J. Geweke. In {\em Bayesian Statistics 4}, ed.\ J. Bernardo et al., 190. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1992] Discussion of ``Maximum entropy and the nearly black object,'' by D. L. Donoho et al. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 54}, 72--73. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1992] Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences (with discussion). {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 7}, 457--511. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1992] Replication without contrition. Rejoinder to discussion of ``Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences.'' {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 7}, 503--511. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1992] Iterative and non-iterative simulation algorithms. {\em Computing Science and Statistics} {\bf 24}, 433--438. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1992] A single series from the Gibbs sampler provides a false sense of security. In {\em Bayesian Statistics 4}, ed.\ J. Bernardo et al., 625--631. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1991] The precision of positron emission tomography: theory and measurement. {\em Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow and Metabolism} {\bf 11}, A26--30. (Nathaniel Alpert, W. C. Barker, A. Gelman, S. Weise, M. Senda, and J. A. Correia)

• [1991] Systemic consequences of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections. {\em American Journal of Political Science} {\bf 35}, 110--138. (Gary King and Andrew Gelman)

• [1991] A note on bivariate distributions that are conditionally normal. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 45}, 125--126. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1990] Discussion of ``A smoothed EM approach to indirect estimation problems, with particular reference to stereology and emission tomography,'' by B. W. Silverman et al. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 52}, 314--315. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1990] Estimating incumbency advantage without bias. {\em American Journal of Political Science} {\bf 34}, 1142--1164. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1990] Estimating the electoral consequences of legislative redistricting. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 85}, 274--282. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1989] Electoral responsiveness in U.S. Congressional elections, 1946--1986 (abstract). {\em Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association}, 208. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1989] Constrained maximum entropy methods in an image reconstruction problem. In {\em Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods}, ed.\ J. Skilling, 429--435. Kluwer Academic Publishers. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1987] Subboundary-free zone-melt recrystallization of thin-film silicon. {\em Applied Physics Letters} {\bf 51}, 1256--1258. (Loren Pfeiffer, Andrew Gelman, K. A. Jackson, K. W. West, and J. L. Batstone)

• [1987] Growth mechanisms during thin film crystallization from the melt. {\em Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings} {\bf 74}, 543--553. (Loren Pfeiffer, Andrew Gelman, K. A. Jackson, and K. W. West)

• [1986] Reduced subboundary misalignment in SOI films scanned at low velocities. {\em Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings} {\bf 53}, 29--37. (Loren Pfeiffer, K. W. West, D. C. Joy, J. M. Gibson, and A. Gelman)

• [1984] The effects of solar flares on single event upset rates. {\em IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science and Radiation Effects} {\bf NS-31}, 1212--1216. (James H. Adams, Jr., and Andrew Gelman)

Back to Andrew Gelman's homepage.