Click for files (in pdf format).

• [2013] To throw away data: Plagiarism as a statistical crime. {\em American Scientist} {\bf 101}, 168--171. (Andrew Gelman and Thomas Basboll)

• [2013] Difficulties in making inferences about scientific truth from distributions of published p-values. {\em Biostatistics}. (Andrew Gelman and Keith O'Rourke)

• [2013] The problem with p-values is how they're used. {\em Ecology}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] Inherent difficulties of non-Bayesian likelihood-based inference, as revealed by an examination of a recent book by Aitkin. {\em Statistics \& Risk Modeling} {\bf 30}, 1001--1016. (Andrew Gelman, Christian Robert, and Judith Rousseau).

• [2013] Interrogating P-values. {\em Journal of Mathematical Psychology}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] How do we choose our default methods? For the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) 50th anniversary volume. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] Nonparametric models can be checked. {\em Bayesian Analysis}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] They'd rather be rigorous than right. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] Infovis and statistical graphics: Different goals, different looks (with discussion). {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman and Antony Unwin)
  Tradeoffs in information graphics (rejoinder to discussion). (Andrew Gelman and Antony Unwin)

• [2013] Deep interactions with MRP: Election turnout and voting patterns among small electoral subgroups. {\em American Journal of Political Science}. (Yair Ghitza and Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] The war on data. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman and Mark Palko)

• [2013] Charles Murray's {\em Coming Apart} and the measurement of social and political divisions. {\em Statistics, Politics and Policy}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] A practical guide to measuring social structure using indirectly observed network data. {\em Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice}. (Tyler McCormick, Amal Moussa, Johannes Ruf, Thomas DiPrete, Andrew Gelman, Julien Teitler, and Tian Zheng)

• [2013] A non-degenerate estimator for hierarchical variance parameters via penalized likelihood estimation. {\em Psychometrika}. (Yeojin Chung, Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, Andrew Gelman, Jingchen Liu, and Vincent Dorie)

• [2013] How Bayesian analysis cracked the red-state, blue state problem. {\em Statistical Science}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] ``Not only defended but also applied'': The perceived absurdity of Bayesian inference (with discussion). {\em The American Statistician}. (Andrew Gelman and Christian Robert)
  The anti-Bayesian moment and its passing (rejoinder to discussion). (Andrew Gelman and Christian Robert)

• [2013] The no-U-turn sampler: Adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. {\em Journal of Machine Learning Research}. (Matt Hoffman and Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] Preregistration of studies and mock reports. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 21}, 40--41. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2013] Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics (with discussion). {\em British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology} {\bf 66}, 8--18. (Andrew Gelman and Cosma Shalizi)
  [2013] Rejoinder to discussion. (Andrew Gelman and Cosma Shalizi)

• [2013] Rates and correlates of HIV and STI infection among homeless women. {\em AIDS and Behavior} {\bf 17}, 856-864. (Carol L. M. Caton, Nabila El-Bassel, Andrew Gelman, Susan Barrow, Daniel Herman, Eustace Hsu, Ana Z. Tochterman, Karen Johnson, and Alan Felix)

• [2013] Does quantum uncertainty have a place in everyday applied statistics? {\em Behavioral and Brain Sciences} {\bf 36}, 285. (Andrew Gelman and Michael Betancourt)

• [2012] Red state / blue state divisions in the 2012 presidential election. {\em The Forum} {\bf 10}, 127--141. (Avi Feller, Andrew Gelman, and Boris Shor)

• [2012] P-values and statistical practice. {\em Epidemiology}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2012] What made Bell Labs special? Review of {\em The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation}, by Jon Gertner. {\em Physics World}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2012] Estimating partisan bias of the electoral college under proposed changes in elector apportionment. {\em Statistics, Politics and Policy}. (Andrew C. Thomas, Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and Jonathan Katz)

• [2012] Ethics and the statistical use of prior information. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2012] Understanding persuasion and activation in presidential campaigns: The random walk and mean-reversion models. {\em Presidential Studies Quarterly}. (Noah Kaplan, David K. Park, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2012] Discussion of {\em Left Turn}, by Tim Groseclose. {\em Perspectives on Politics} {\bf 10}, 775--779. (Justin Gross, Cosma Shalizi, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2012] Statistics for sellers of cigarettes. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2012] Ethics in medical trials: Where does statistics fit in? {\em Chance} {\bf 25} (2), 52--54. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2012] Why we (usually) don't have to worry about multiple comparisons. {\em Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness} {\bf 5}, 189--211. (Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill, and Masanao Yajima)

• [2012] Statisticians: When we teach, we don't practice what we preach. {\em Chance} {\bf 25} (1), 47--48. (Andrew Gelman and Eric Loken)

• [2012] Freakonomics: What went wrong? {\em American Scientist}. (Andrew Gelman and Kaiser Fung) \

• [2011] Ethics and statistics: Open data and open methods. {\em Chance} {\bf 24} (4), 51--53. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Tables as graphs: The Ramanujan principle. {\em Significance} {\bf 8}, 183. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Induction and deduction in Bayesian data analysis. {\em Rationality, Markets and Morals}, special topic issue ``Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They Meet In 2011 and Beyond?'', ed.\ Deborah Mayo, Aris Spanos, and Kent Staley. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Economic divisions and political polarization in red and blue America. {\em Pathways} (Summer), 3--6. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Statistical graphics: making information clear --- and beautiful. {\em Significance} {\bf 8}, 135--137. (Jarad Niemi and Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Experimental reasoning in social science. For {\em Field Experiments and their Critics}, ed.\ Dawn Teele. Yale University Press. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Going beyond the book: toward critical reading in statistics teaching. {\em Teaching Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Causality and statistical learning. {\em American Journal of Sociology}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Inference from simulations and monitoring convergence. In {\em Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo}, ed.\ S. Brooks, A. Gelman, G. Jones, and X. L. Meng. CRC Press. (Andrew Gelman and Kenneth Shirley)

• [2011] Multiple imputation with diagnostics (mi) in R: Opening windows into the black box. {\em Journal of Statistical Software}. (Yu-Sung Su, Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill, and Masanao Yajima)

• [2011] Segregation in social networks based on acquaintanceship and trust. {\em American Journal of Sociology} {\bf 116}, 1234--1283. (Thomas A. DiPrete, Andrew Gelman, Tyler McCormick, Julien Teitler, and Tian Zheng)

• [2011] Bayesian statistical pragmatism. {\em Statistical Science}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Why tables are really much better than graphs (with discussion). {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics} {\bf 20}, 3--40. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2011] Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics in the social sciences. In {\em Oxford Handbook of the Philosophy of the Social Sciences}, ed.\ Harold Kincaid. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman and Cosma Shalizi)

• [2010] Breaking down the 2008 vote. In {\em Atlas of the 2008 Election}, ed.\ S. Brunn. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2010] Voting by education in 2008. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman and Yu-Sung Su)

• [2010] What do we know at 7pm on election night? {\em Mathematics Magazine} {\bf 83}, 258--266. (Andrew Gelman and Nate Silver)

• [2010] Economic disparities and life satisfaction in European regions. {\em Social Indicators Research}. (Maria Grazia Pittau, Roberto Zelli, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2010] Review of {\em The Search for Certainty}, by Krzysztof Burdzy. {\em Bayesian Analysis}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2010] Public opinion on health care reform. {\em The Forum} {\bf 8} (1), article 8. (Andrew Gelman, Daniel Lee, and Yair Ghitza)

• [2010] A snapshot of the 2008 election. {\em Statistics, Politics and Policy} {\bf 1} (1), article 3. (Andrew Gelman, Daniel Lee, and Yair Ghitza)

• [2010] Bayesian combination of state polls and election forecasts. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 18}, 337--348. (Kari Lock and Andrew Gelman)

• [2010] Can fractals be used to predict human history? Review of {\em Bursts}, by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi. {\em Physics Today}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2010] Bayesian statistics then and now. {\em Statistical Science}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2010] Economics and voter irrationality. Review of {\em The Myth of the Rational Voter}, by Bryan Caplan. {\em Political Psychology}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2010] Income inequality and partisan voting in the United States. {\em Social Science Quarterly}. (Andrew Gelman, Lane Kenworthy, and Yu-Sung Su)

• [2010] Adaptively scaling the Metropolis algorithm using expected squared jumped distance. {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 20}. (Cristian Pasarica and Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Bridges between deterministic and probabilistic models for binary data. {\em Statistical Methodology}. (Andrew Gelman, Iwin Leenen, Iven Van Mechelen, and Paul De Boeck)

• [2009] Review of {\em Class War? What Americans Really Think about Economic Inequality}, by Benjamin I. Page and Lawrence R. Jacobs. {\em Political Science Quarterly}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Some thoughts on the BUGS package for Bayesian analysis. {\em Statistics in Medicine}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Bayes, Jeffreys, prior distributions, and the philosophy of statistics. {\em Statistical Science}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] What is the probability your vote will make a difference? {\em Economic Inquiry}. (Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, and Aaron Edlin)

• [2009] Review of {\em Mostly Harmless Econometrics}, by Joshua D. Angrist and Jorn-Steffen Pischke. {\em Stata Journal}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Correlations and multiple comparisons in functional imaging: a statistical perspective. {\em Perspectives in Psychological Science}. (Martin A. Lindquist and Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Prior distributions for Bayesian data analysis in political science. In {\em Frontier of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis: Essays in Honor of James O. Berger}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Of beauty, sex, and power: statistical challenges in estimating small effects. {\em American Scientist}. (Andrew Gelman and David Weakliem)

• [2009] Discussion of ``What is statistics,'' by Emery Brown and Robert Kass. {\em American Statistician}. (David Madigan and Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Beautiful political data. In {\em Beautiful Data}. O'Reilly Press. (Andrew Gelman, John Kastellec, and Yair Ghitza)

• [2009] Discussion of ``Weighting and prediction in sample surveys,'' by R. J. Little. {\em Calcutta Statistical Association Bulletin}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Splitting a predictor at the upper quarter or third and the lower quarter or third. {\em American Statistician}. (Andrew Gelman and David Park)

• [2009] Discussion of ``Website morphing,'' by J. R. Hauser, G. L. Urban, ZG. Liberali, and M. Braun. {\em Marketing Science} {\bf 28}, 226. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2009] Discussion of ``Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations,'' by H. Rue, S. Martino and N. Chopin. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Review of {\em Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach}, by Jeff Gill. {\em SIAM Review}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Vote for charity's sake. {\em Economist's Voice} {\bf 5} (6), article 6. (Aaron Edlin, Andrew Gelman and Noah Kaplan)

• [2008] The playing field shifts: predicting the seats-votes curve in the 2008 U.S. House election. {\em PS: Political Science \& Politics}. (John Kastellec, Andrew Gelman, and Jamie Chandler)

• [2008] A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models. {\em Annals of Applied Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman, Aleks Jakulin, Maria Grazia Pittau, and Yu-Sung Su)

• [2008] Teaching Bayesian applied statistics to graduate students in political science, sociology, public health, education, economics, ... {\em American Statistician} {\bf 62}, 202--205. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Objections to Bayesian statistics (with discussion). {\em Bayesian Analysis}. (Andrew Gelman)
  Rejoinder to discussion. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] A simple scheme to improve the efficiency of referenda. {\em Journal of Public Economics}. (Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Partisans without constraint: political polarization and trends in American public opinion. {\em American Journal of Sociology}. (Delia Baldassarri and Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Game theory as ideology: some comments on Robert Axelrod's ``The Evolution of Cooperation.'' {\em QA-Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria} {\bf 2}, 167--176. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2008] Estimating incumbency advantage and its variation, as an example of a before/after study (with discussion). {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}. (Andrew Gelman and Zaiying Huang)

• [2008] Diagnostics for multivariate imputations. {\em Applied Statistics}. (Kobi Abayomi, Andrew Gelman, and Marc Levy)

• [2008] Should the Democrats move to the left on economic policy? {\em Annals of Applied Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman and Cexun Jeffrey Cai)

• [2008] Predicting and dissecting the seats-votes curve in the 2006 U.S. House election. {\em PS: Political Science \& Politics}. (John Kastellec, Andrew Gelman, and Jamie Chandler)

• [2008] Scaling regression inputs by dividing by two standard deviations. {\em Statistics in Medicine}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Rich state, poor state, red state, blue state: What's the matter with Connecticut? {\em Quarterly Journal of Political Science} {\bf 2}, 345--367. (Andrew Gelman, Boris Shor, Joseph Bafumi, and David Park)

• [2007] The New York City Puerto Rican asthma project: study design, methods, and baseline results. {\em Journal of Asthma} {\bf 45}, 51--57. (Luis Acosta, Dolores Acevedo-García, Matthew S. Perzanowski, Robert Mellins, Lindsay Rosenfeld, Dharma Cortes, Andrew Gelman, Joanne K. Fagan, Luis A. Bracero, Juan C. Correa, Ann Marie Reardon, and Ginger L. Chew)

• [2007] Thoughts inspired by Nassim Taleb's `Fooled by Randomness' and `The Black Swan'. {\em Law, Probability and Risk}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Bayesian hierarchical classes analysis. {\em Psychometika}. (Iwin Leenen, Iven Van Mechelen, Andrew Gelman, and Stijn De Knop)

• [2007] Using redundant parameters to fit hierarchical models. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman, Zaiying Huang, David van Dyk, and W. John Boscardin)

• [2007] A catch-22 in assigning primary delegates. {\em Chance}.(Howard Wainer and Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Discussion of ``Bayesian checking of the second levels of hierarchical models,'' by M. J. Bayarri and M. E. Castellanos. {\em Statistical Science}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Weight loss, self-experimentation, and web trials: a mutual interview. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman and Seth Roberts)

• [2007] Manipulating and summarizing posterior simulations using random variable objects. {\em Statistics and Computing}. (Jouni Kerman and Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative? {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 17}, 422--426. (Andrew Gelman and Aleks Jakulin)

• [2007] Letter to the editors regarding some papers of Dr. Satoshi Kanazawa. {\em Journal of Theoretical Biology} {\bf 245}, 597--599. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Struggles with survey weighting and regression modeling (with discussion). {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 22}, 153--164. (Andrew Gelman)
  Rejoinder to discussion. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 22}, 184--188. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2007] Average predictive comparisons for models with nonlinearity, interactions, and variance components. {\em Sociological Methodology}. (Andrew Gelman and Iain Pardoe)

• [2007] Voting as a rational choice: why and how people vote to improve the well-being of others. {\em Rationality and Society}. (Aaron Edlin, Andrew Gelman, and Noah Kaplan)

• [2007] An analysis of the NYPD's stop-and-frisk policy in the context of claims of racial bias. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}. (Andrew Gelman, Jeffrey Fagan, and Alex Kiss)

• [2007] Evaluation of multilevel decision trees. {\em Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference} {\bf 137}, 1151--1160. (Erwann Rogard, Andrew Gelman, and Hao Lu)

• [2007] Review of ``Regression Analysis: A Constructive Critique,'' by Richard Berk. {\em Criminal Justice Review} {\bf 32}, 301--302. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Tools for Bayesian data analysis in R. {\em Statistical Computing and Graphics} {\bf 17} (2), 9--13. (Jouni Kerman and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] The difference between ``significant'' and ``not significant'' is not itself statistically significant. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 60}, 328--331. (Andrew Gelman and Hal Stern)

• [2006] Weighted classical variogram estimation for data with clustering. {\em Technometrics}. (Cavan Reilly and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Analysis of variance. In {\em New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics}, second edition. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Targeting low-arsenic groundwater with mobile-phone technology in Araihazar, Bangladesh. {\em Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition}. (Alexander van Geen, Matilde Trevisani, John Immel, M. Jakariya, N. Osman, Z. Cheng, Alexander Pfaff, Andrew Gelman, and K. M. Ahmed)
  Figures for this paper

• [2006] Bayesian measures of explained variance and pooling in multilevel (hierarchical) models. {\em Technometrics} {\bf 48}, 241--251. (Andrew Gelman and Iain Pardoe)

• [2006] Validation of software for Bayesian models using posterior quantiles. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics} {\em 15}, 675--692. (Samantha Cook, Andrew Gelman, and Donald B. Rubin)

• [2006] Bayesian data analysis using R. {\em R News}. (Jouni Kerman and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Bayesian software validation. {\em R News}. (Samantha Cook and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Visualization in Bayesian data analysis. In {\em Handbook of Computational Statistics, vol.\ III: Data Visualization}. (Jouni Kerman, Andrew Gelman, Tian Zheng, and Yuejing Ding)

• [2006] The boxer, the wrestler, and the coin flip: a paradox of robust Bayesian inference and belief functions. {\em The American Statistician} {\bf 60}, 146--150. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models. {\em Bayesian Analysis} {\bf 1}, 515--533. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Fuzzy and Bayesian p-values and u-values. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 20}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] "How many people do you know in prison?": using overdispersion in count data to estimate social structure in networks. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 101}, 409--423. (Tian Zheng, Matthew Salganik, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Multilevel modeling: what it can and can't do. {\em Technometrics} {\bf 48}, 241--251. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2006] Output assessment for Monte Carlo simulations via the score statistic. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics} {\bf 15}, 178--206. (Yanan Fan, Stephen Brooks, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] State-level opinions from national surveys: poststratification using multilevel logistic regression. In {\em Public Opinion in State Politics}, ed.\ J. E. Cohen. Stanford University Press. (David K. Park, Andrew Gelman, and Joseph Bafumi)

• [2005] Two-stage regression and multilevel modeling: a commentary. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 13}, 459--461. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Anova as a tool for structuring and understanding hierarchical models. {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] An experimental study of storable votes. {\em Games and Economic Behavior} {\bf 57}, 123--154. (Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman, and Thomas R. Palfrey)

• [2005] R2WinBUGS: a package for running WinBUGS from R. {\em Journal of Statistical Software} {\bf 12} (3). (Sibylle Sturtz, Uwe Ligges, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] A course on teaching statistics at the university level. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 59}, 4--7. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Probabilistic feature analysis of facial perception of emotions. {\em Applied Statistics} {\bf 54}, 781--793. (Michel Meulders, Paul De Boeck, Ivan Van Mechelen, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Analysis of variance: why it is more important than ever (with discussion). {\em Annals of Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Practical issues in implementing and understanding Bayesian ideal point estimation. {\em Political Analysis}. (Joseph Bafumi, Andrew Gelman, David K. Park, and Noah Kaplan)

• [2005] Should you measure the radon concentration in your home? In {\em Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown}, fourth edition. (Phillip N. Price and Andrew Gelman)

• [2005] Multiple imputation for model checking: completed-data plots with missing and latent data. {\em Biometrics}. (Andrew Gelman, Iven Van Mechelen, Geert Verbecke, Daniel F. Heitjan, and Michel Meulders)

• [2004] Reliability of a commercial kit to test groundwater for arsenic in Bangladesh. {\em Environmental Science and Technology}. (A. van Geen, Z. Cheng, A. A. Seddique, M. A. Hoque, A. Gelman, J. H. Graziano, H. Ahsan, F. Parvez, and K. M. Ahmed)

• [2004] Direct data manipulation for local decision analysis, as applied to the problem of arsenic in drinking water from tube wells in Bangladesh. {\em Risk Analysis} {\bf 24}, 1597--1612. (Andrew Gelman, Matilde Trevisani, Hao Lu, and Alexander van Geen)

• [2004] Bayesian multilevel estimation with poststratification: state-level estimates from national polls. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 12}, 375--385. (David K. Park, Andrew Gelman, amd Joseph Bafumi)

• [2004] Treatment effects in before-after data. In {\em Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from an Incomplete Data Perspective}, ed.\ A. Gelman and X. L. Meng, chapter 18. London: Wiley. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Using image and curve registration for measuring the goodness of fit of spatial and temporal predictions. {\em Biometrics} {\bf 60}, 954--964. (Cavan Reilly, Phillip Price, Andrew Gelman, and Scott A. Sandgathe)

• [2004] A broken system: the persistent pattern of reversals of death sentences in the United States. {\em Journal of Empirical Legal Studies}. (Andrew Gelman, James Liebman, Valerie West, and Alex Kiss)

• [2004] 55,000 residents desperately need your help! {\em Chance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Exploratory data analysis for complex models (with discussion). {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)
  Discussion of this paper by Andreas Buja. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andreas Buja)
  Rejoinder to discussion. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Bayesian analysis of serial dilution assays. {\em Biometrics}. (Andrew Gelman, Ginger Chew, and Michael Shnaidman)

• [2004] Standard voting power indexes don't work: an empirical analysis. {\em British Journal of Political Science} {\bf 34}, 657--674. (Andrew Gelman, Jonathan N. Katz, and Joseph Bafumi)

• [2004] Extension of the isobolographic approach to interactions studies between more than two drugs: illustration with the convulsant interaction between pefloxacin, norfloxacin, and theophylline in rats. {\em Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences} {\bf 93}, 553--562. (Celine Brochot, Sandrine Marchand, William Conet, Andrew Gelman, and Frederic Y. Bois)

• [2004] Parameterization and Bayesian modeling. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 99}, 537--545. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2004] Empirically evaluating the electoral college. In {\em Rethinking the Vote: The Politics and Prospects of American Election Reform}, ed.\ A. N. Crigler, M. R. Just, and E. J. McCaffery, 75--88. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman, Jonathan N. Katz, and Gary King)

• [2003] Forming voting blocs and coalitions as a prisoner's dilemma: a possible theoretical explanation for political instability. {\em Contributions to Economic Analysis and Policy} {\bf 2} (1), article 13. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] A Bayesian formulation of exploratory data analysis and goodness-of-fit testing. {\em International Statistical Review} {\bf 71}, 369--382. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] Sampling variances for surveys with weighting, poststratification, and raking. {\em Journal of Official Statistics}. (Hao Lu and Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] Spatial variability of arsenic in 6000 tube wells in a 25 km$^2$ area of Bangladesh. {\em Water Resources Research} {\bf 39} (5), 1140. (Van Geen, A., Zheng, Y., Versteeg, R., Stute, M., Horneman, A., Dhar, R., Steckler, M., Gelman, A., Small, C., Ahsan, H., Graziano, J. H., Hussein, I., and Ahmed, K. M.)

• [2003] A Bayesian approach to the selection and testing of latent class models. {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 13}, 423--442. (Johannes Berkhof, Iven Van Mechelen, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2003] Regression models for decision making: a cost-benefit analysis of incentives in telephone surveys. {\em Journal of Business and Economic Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman, Matt Stevens, and Valerie Chan)

• [2002] The mathematics and statistics of voting power. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 17}, 420--435. (Andrew Gelman, Jonathan N. Katz, and Francis Tuerlinckx)

• [2002] Promotion of well-switching to mitigate the arsenic crisis in Bangladesh. {\em Bulletin of the World Health Organization} {\bf 80}, 732--737. (A. van Geen, H. Ahsan, A. Horneman, R. K. Dhar, Y. Zheng, A. Z. M. I. Hussain, K. M. Ahmed, A. Gelman, M. Stute, H. J. Simpson, S. Wallace, C. Small, M. F. Parvez, V. Slavkovich, N. J. LoIacono, M. Becker, Z. Cheng, H. Momotaj, M. Shahnewaz, A. A. Seddique, and J. Graziano)

• [2002] Mechanistic understanding of models for educational assessments. {\em Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives} {\bf 1}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] Let's practice what we preach: turning tables into graphs. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 56}, 121--130. (Andrew Gelman, Cristian Pasarica, and Rahul Dodhia)

• [2002] Prior distribution. {\em Encyclopedia of Environmetrics} {\bf 3}, 1634--1637. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] Posterior distribution. {\em Encyclopedia of Environmetrics} {\bf 3}, 1627--1628. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] Voting, fairness, and political representation (with discussion). {\em Chance} {\bf 15} (3), 22--26. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2002] You can load a die but you can't bias a coin. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 56}, 308--311. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2002] Some statistical sampling and data collection activities. {\em The Mathematics Teacher}. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2002] A class project in survey sampling. {\em College Teaching}. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2002] A probability model for golf putting. {\em Teaching Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan)

• [2001] Using conditional distributions for missing-data imputation. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 3}, 268--269. (Andrew Gelman and T. E. Raghunathan)

• [2001] Bayesian inference with probability matrix decomposition models). {\em Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics} {\bf 26}, 153--179. (Michel Meulders, Paul De Boeck, Iven Van Mechelen, Andrew Gelman, and Eric Maris)

• [2001] Alternative models for longitudinal binary outcome data: a case study on their choice, interpretation and checking. {\em Biostatistics} {\bf 2}, 397--416. (John B. Carlin, C. Hendricks Brown, Andrew Gelman, and Rory Wolfe)

• [2001] Analysis of large-scale social surveys. {\em International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral Sciences}. (Elaine Zanutto and Andrew Gelman)

• [2001] Post-stratification without population level information on the post-stratifying variable, with application to political polling. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 96}, 1--11. (Cavan Reilly, Andrew Gelman, and Jonathan N. Katz)

• [2001] Models, assumptions, and model checking in ecological regressions. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A} {\bf 164}, 101--118. (Andrew Gelman, Stephen Ansolabehere, Phillip N. Price, David K. Park, and Lorraine C. Minnite)

• [2001] Poststratification and weighting adjustments. In {\em Survey Nonresponse}, ed.\ R. Groves, D. Dillman, J. Eltinge, and R. Little. (Andrew Gelman and John B. Carlin)

• [2000] Discussion of ``Inference in molecular population genetics,'' by M. Stephens and P. Donnelly. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Stephen Brooks and Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Optimization and simulation transfer algorithms. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Simulation modeling for cost estimation. In {\em Current Directions in Postal Reform}, ed.\ M. A. Crew and P. R. Kleindorfer, 171--193. Boston: Kluwer. (Richard Waterman, Donald Rubin, Neal Thomas, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Bayesiaanse variantieanalyse. {\em Kwantitative Methoden} {\bf 21}, 5--12. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Should we take measurements at an intermediate design point? {\em Biostatistics} {\bf 1}, 27--34. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] A method for quantifying artifacts in mapping methods, illustrated by application to headbanging. {\em Statistics in Medicine} {\bf 19}, 2309--2320. (Andrew Gelman, Phillip N. Price, and Chia-yu Lin)

• [2000] Type S error rates for classical and Bayesian single and multiple comparison procedures. {\em Computational Statistics} {\bf 15}, 373--390. (Andrew Gelman and Francis Tuerlinckx)

• [2000] Bayesian probabilistic extensions of a deterministic classification model. {\em Computational Statistics}, {\bf 15}, 355--371. (Iwin Leenen, Iven Van Mechelen, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2000] Diagnostic checks for discrete-data regression models using posterior predictive simulations. {\em Applied Statistics} {\bf 49}, 247--268. (Andrew Gelman, Yuri Goegebeur, Francis Tuerlinckx, and Iven Van Mechelen)

• [2000] Some class-participation demonstrations for introductory probability and statistics. {\em Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics} {\bf 25}, 84--100. (Andrew Gelman and Mark Glickman)

• [1999] Analysis of local decisions using hierarchical modeling, applied to home radon measurement and remediation (with discussion). {\em Statistical Science}, {\bf 14}, 305--337. (Chia-Yu Lin, Andrew Gelman, Phillip N. Price, and David H. Krantz)

• [1999] Optimal design for a study of butadiene toxicokinetics in humans. {\em Toxicological Sciences}. (Frederic Y. Bois, Thomas J. Smith, Andrew Gelman, Ho-Yuan Chang, and Andrew E. Smith)

• [1999] Evaluating and using statistical methods in the social sciences. {\em Sociological Methods and Research} {\bf 27}, 403--410. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1999] All maps of parameter estimates are misleading. {\em Statistics in Medicine} {\bf 18}, 3221--3234. (Andrew Gelman and Phillip N. Price)

• [1998] Discussion of ``Quantifying surprise in the data and model verification,'' by M. J. Bayarri and J. O. Berger. {\em Bayesian Statistics 6}. (Xiao-Li Meng and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Discussion of ``Bayesian projection of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic,'' by D. De Angelis, W. R. Gilks, and N. E. Day. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman and John B. Carlin)

• [1998] Discussion of ``Some algebra and geometry for hierarchical models, applied to diagnostics,'' by J. H. Hodges. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman and Phillip N. Price)

• [1998] Some issues in monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. {\em Computing Science and Statistics}. (Stephen Brooks and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Improving upon probability weighting for household size. {\em Public Opinion Quarterly} {\bf 62}, 398--404. (Andrew Gelman and Thomas C. Little)

• [1998] Generalizing the probability matrix decomposition model: an example of Bayesian model checking and model expansion. In {\em Assumptions, Robustness, and Estimation Methods in Multivariate Modeling}, ed.\ J. Hox. (Michel Meulders, Andrew Gelman, Iven Van Mechelen, and Paul De Boeck)

• [1998] Simulating normalizing constants: from importance sampling to bridge sampling to path sampling. {\em Statistical Science}. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1998] General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}. (Stephen Brooks and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Modeling differential nonresponse in sample surveys. {\em Sankhya} {\bf 60}, 101--126. (Thomas C. Little and Andrew Gelman)

• [1998] Not asked and not answered: multiple imputation for multiple surveys (with discussion). {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 93}, 846--874. (Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and Chuanhai Liu)
  [1998] Rejoinder to discussion. (Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and Chuanhai Liu)

• [1998] Estimating the probability of events that have never occurred: When is your vote decisive? {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 93}, 1--9. (Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and John Boscardin)

• [1998] Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice: a roundtable discussion. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 52}, 93--100. (Robert E. Kass, Bradley P. Carlin, Andrew Gelman, and Radford M. Neal)

• [1998] Some class-participation demonstrations for decision theory and Bayesian statistics. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 52}, 167--174. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1997] Discussion of ``Analysis of non-randomly censored ordered categorical longitudinal data from analgesic trials,'' by L. B. Sheiner, S. L. Beal, and A. Dunne. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}. (Andrew Gelman and Frederic Y. Bois)

• [1997] Discussion of ``The EM algorithm---an old folk-song sung to a fast new tune,'' by X. L. Meng and D. Van Dyk. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1997] Poststratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression. {\em Survey Methodology} {\bf 23}, 127--135. (Andrew Gelman and Thomas C. Little)

• [1997] How can statistical theory help with statistical practice? Example of a Bayesian analysis in toxicokinetics. In {\em Good Statistical Practice. Proceedings of the 12th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling}, ed.\ C. E. Minder and H. Friedl, 61--70. Wien: Austrian Statistical Society. (Andrew Gelman and Frederic Y. Bois)

• [1997] Weak convergence and optimal scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms. {\em Annals of Applied Probability} {\bf 7}, 110--120. (Gareth O. Roberts, Andrew Gelman, and Walter R. Gilks)

• [1997] Walking to school and traffic exposure in Australian children. {\em Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health} {\bf 21}, 286--292. (John B. Carlin, Mark R. Stevenson, Ian Roberts, Catherine M. Bennett, Andrew Gelman, and Terry Nolan)

• [1997] Using exams for teaching concepts in probability and statistics. {\em Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics} {\bf 22}, 237--243. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Discussion of ``Hierarchical generalized linear models,'' by Y. Lee and J. A. Nelder. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Physiological pharmacokinetic analysis using population modeling and informative prior distributions. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 91}, 1400--1412. (Andrew Gelman, Frederic Y. Bois, and Jiming Jiang)

• [1996] Bayesian analysis of election surveys and forecasts. In {\em Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics 3}, ed.\ C. Gatsonis, J. S. Hodges, R. E. Kass, and N. D. Singpurwalla. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in biostatistics. {\em Statistical Methods in Medical Research} {\bf 5}, 339--355. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1996] Bayesian prediction of mean indoor radon concentrations for Minnesota counties. {\em Health Physics} {\bf 71}, 922--936. (Phillip N. Price, Anthony V. Nero, and Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Population toxicokinetics of tetrachloroethylene. {\em Archives of Toxicology} {\bf 70}, 347--355. (Frederic Y. Bois, Andrew Gelman, Jiming Jiang, Don Maszle, and George Alexeef)

• [1996] Posterior predictive assessment of model fitness via realized discrepancies (with discussion). {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 6}, 733--807. (Andrew Gelman, Xiao-Li Meng, and Hal S. Stern)

• [1996] Advantages of conflictual redistricting. In {\em Fixing the Boundaries: Defining and Redefining Single-Member Electoral Districts}, ed.\ I. McLean and D. Butler. Aldershot, England: Dartmouth Publishing Company, 207--217. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King) [ASCII file]

• [1996] Bayesian model-building by pure thought: some principles and examples. {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 6}, 215--232. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Bayesian regression with parametric models for heteroscedasticity. {\em Advances in Econometrics} {\bf 11}, A87--109. (W. John Boscardin and Andrew Gelman)

• [1996] Efficient Metropolis jumping rules. In {\em Bayesian Statistics 5}, ed.\ J. Bernardo et al., 599--607. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman, Gareth O. Roberts, and Walter R. Gilks)

• [1995] Review of {\em Handbook of Statistical Modeling for the Social and Behavioral Sciences}, ed.\ G. Arminger, C. C. Clogg, and M. E. Sobel. {\em Contemporary Sociology} {\bf 24} 712--714. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1995] Discussion of ``Fractional Bayes factors for model comparison,'' by A. O'Hagan. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 57}, 131. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1995] Discussion of ``Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty,'' by D. Draper. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 57}, 83. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1995] Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research. {\em Sociological Methodology 1995}, 165--173. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1995] Pre-election survey methodology: details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992. {\em Public Opinion Quarterly} {\bf 59}, 98--132. (D. Stephen Voss, Andrew Gelman, and Gary King)

• [1995] Method of moments using Monte Carlo simulation. {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics} {\bf 3}, 36--54. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1995] Inference and monitoring convergence. In {\em Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo}, ed.\ W. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. Spiegelhalter, 131--143. London: Chapman and Hall. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1995] Model checking and model improvement. In {\em Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo}, ed.\ W. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. Spiegelhalter, 189--201. London: Chapman and Hall. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1995] Racial fairness in legislative redistricting. In {\em Classifying by Race}, ed.\ P. E. Peterson, 85--110. Princeton University Press. (Gary King, John M. Bruce, and Andrew Gelman)

• [1994] Discussion of ``A probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of party support in multiparty elections,'' by S. Merrill. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 89}, 1198. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1994] Discussion of ``Approximate Bayesian inference and the weighted likelihood bootstrap,'' by M. A. Newton and A. E. Raftery. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 56}, 37. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1994] Enhancing democracy through legislative redistricting. {\em American Political Science Review} {\bf 88}, 541--559. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1994] Party competition and media messages in U.S. Presidential elections. In {\em The Parties Respond}, second edition, ed.\ L. S. Maisel, 255--195. Westview Press. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1994] A unified model for evaluating electoral systems and redistricting plans. {\em American Journal of Political Science} {\bf 38}, 514--554. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1993] Assessing uncertainty in backprojection. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 8}, 104--106. (with John B. Carlin) (John B. Carlin and Andrew Gelman)

• [1993] Review of {\em Forecasting Elections}, by M. S. Lewis-Beck and T. W. Rice. {\em Public Opinion Quarterly} {\bf 57}, 119--121. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1993] Discussion of ``Bayesian computation via the Gibbs sampler and related Markov chain methods,'' by A. F. M. Smith and G. O. Roberts. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 55}, 73. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1993] Why are American Presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable? {\em British Journal of Political Science} {\bf 23}, 409--451. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1993] Characterizing a joint probability distribution by conditionals. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 55}, 185--188. (Andrew Gelman and T. P. Speed)

• [1992] Discussion of ``Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments,'' by J. Geweke. In {\em Bayesian Statistics 4}, ed.\ J. Bernardo et al., 190. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1992] Discussion of ``Maximum entropy and the nearly black object,'' by D. L. Donoho et al. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 54}, 72--73. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1992] Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences (with discussion). {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 7}, 457--511. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)
  [1992] Replication without contrition (rejoinder to discussion). (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1992] Iterative and non-iterative simulation algorithms. {\em Computing Science and Statistics} {\bf 24}, 433--438. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1992] A single series from the Gibbs sampler provides a false sense of security. In {\em Bayesian Statistics 4}, ed.\ J. Bernardo et al., 625--631. Oxford University Press. (Andrew Gelman and Donald B. Rubin)

• [1991] The precision of positron emission tomography: theory and measurement. {\em Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow and Metabolism} {\bf 11}, A26--30. (Nathaniel Alpert, W. C. Barker, A. Gelman, S. Weise, M. Senda, and J. A. Correia)

• [1991] Systemic consequences of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections. {\em American Journal of Political Science} {\bf 35}, 110--138. (Gary King and Andrew Gelman)

• [1991] A note on bivariate distributions that are conditionally normal. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 45}, 125--126. (Andrew Gelman and Xiao-Li Meng)

• [1990] Discussion of ``A smoothed EM approach to indirect estimation problems, with particular reference to stereology and emission tomography,'' by B. W. Silverman et al. {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B} {\bf 52}, 314--315. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1990] Estimating incumbency advantage without bias. {\em American Journal of Political Science} {\bf 34}, 1142--1164. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1990] Estimating the electoral consequences of legislative redistricting. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association} {\bf 85}, 274--282. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1989] Electoral responsiveness in U.S. Congressional elections, 1946--1986 (abstract). {\em Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association}, 208. (Andrew Gelman and Gary King)

• [1989] Constrained maximum entropy methods in an image reconstruction problem. In {\em Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods}, ed.\ J. Skilling, 429--435. Kluwer Academic Publishers. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1987] Subboundary-free zone-melt recrystallization of thin-film silicon. {\em Applied Physics Letters} {\bf 51}, 1256--1258. (Loren Pfeiffer, Andrew Gelman, K. A. Jackson, K. W. West, and J. L. Batstone)

• [1987] Growth mechanisms during thin film crystallization from the melt. {\em Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings} {\bf 74}, 543--553. (Loren Pfeiffer, Andrew Gelman, K. A. Jackson, and K. W. West)

• [1986] Reduced subboundary misalignment in SOI films scanned at low velocities. {\em Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings} {\bf 53}, 29--37. (Loren Pfeiffer, K. W. West, D. C. Joy, J. M. Gibson, and A. Gelman)

• [1986] Towards a better understanding of the peaceful society of First World War trenches. Undergraduate thesis, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. (Andrew Gelman)

• [1984] The effects of solar flares on single event upset rates. {\em IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science and Radiation Effects} {\bf NS-31}, 1212--1216. (James H. Adams, Jr., and Andrew Gelman)

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