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Back to Andrew Gelman's homepage.
-  Stories and Stats.
The truth about Obama’s victory wasn’t in the papers.
Boston Review, 12 Sep. (with John Sides)
-  Why abortion consensus is unlikely: The strange dynamics of this hot-button issue.
New York Daily News, 8 Nov. (with John Sides)
-  The Senate’s Health Care Calculations.
New York Times, 18 Nov. (with Nate Silver and Daniel Lee)
-  Over Time, a Gay Marriage Groundswell.
New York Times, 21 Aug. (with Jeff Lax and Justin Phillips)
-  The Best Books on Statistics.
Five Books, 3 Jan.
-  A Statistician Rereads Bill James.
Baseball Prospectus, 5 May.
-  How Baseball Is Different From Politics. The Atlantic, 20 June.
-  Why America Isn't as Polarized as You Think. The Atlantic, 8 July.
-  Why Are Primaries Hard to Predict?
New York Times, 29 Nov.
-  The Best Books on How Americans Vote.
Five Books, 3 Jan.
-  Do We Hate the Rich or Don’t We?
New York Times, 22 Dec.
-  What Too Close to Call Really Means.
New York Times, 30 Oct.
-  Refusing to Vote Either Red or Blue.
New York Daily News, 8 Nov.
-  Red Versus Blue in a New Light.
New York Times, 12 Nov.
-  I Pick, Something That Ends in ‘N.’
New York Times, 28 Jan.
-  The Average American Knows How Many People?
New York Times, 18 Feb.
-  How Fast We Slow Down Running Longer Distances.
New York Times, 18 Mar.
-  Rich States, Poor States.
New York Times, 10 June.
-  Too Good to Be True. Statistics may say that women wear red when they’re fertile . . . but you can’t always trust statistics. Slate, 24 July.
-  To Be Born on a Christmas Morn.
New York Times, 23 Dec.
-  The Paradox of Racism. Why the new book by the New York Times’ Nicholas Wade is both plausible and preposterous. Slate, 8 May.
-  Why Consumers Should Care About Apple’s War on Big Data.
Daily Beast, 14 Apr. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  What’s So Fun About Fake Data?
Daily Beast, 28 June. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  Don’t Mistake Genetics For Fate.
Daily Beast, 11 July. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  The Truth About Post-Ferguson Gun Deaths.
Daily Beast, 10 Aug. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  There How the Media #Fails Basic Math.
Daily Beast, 24 Aug. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  There Are Infinite Types of Drunk People.
Daily Beast, 7 Sep. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  Could Google Rig the 2016 Election? Don’t Believe the Hype.
Daily Beast, 21 Sep. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  Banks Want Robots to Do Their Hiring.
Daily Beast, 27 Sep. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  How Debunking the Great ‘Selfies Are More Deadly Than Shark Attacks’ Myth.
Daily Beast, 5 Oct. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  How Debunking the Great ‘Selfies Are More Deadly Than Shark Attacks’ Myth.Ta-Nehisi Coates, David Brooks, and the ‘Street Code’ of Journalism.
Daily Beast, 19 Oct. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  How Drug Companies Game the Placebo Effect.
Daily Beast, 3 Nov. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  Is the Death Rate Really Increasing for Middle-Aged White Americans?
I ran the numbers, and the story isn’t as simple as it seems. Slate, 11 Nov.
-  How Effective Are Anti-Smoking Ads?
Daily Beast, 23 Nov. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  Does Standing Lead to Weight Loss?
Daily Beast, 7 Dec. (with Kaiser Fung)
-  The Power of the “Power Pose.”
Amy Cuddy’s famous finding is the latest example of scientific overreach. Slate, 19 Jan.
(with Kaiser Fung)
-  Science Needs to Learn How to Fail So It Can Succeed. Wired, 23 Mar.
-  Scientists aren't superheroes -- failure is a valid result. The Guardian, 8 June.
-  Texit Ain’t Brexit. Slate, 29 June.
-  Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets.
Brexit, Trump--the once-reliable prediction markets have misfired of late. Here’s why. Slate, 12 July. (with David Rothschild)
-  Trump’s Up 3! Clinton’s Up 9!
Why you shouldn’t be fooled by polling bounces. Slate, 5 Aug. (with David Rothschild)
-  Trump-Clinton Probably Won’t Be a Landslide. The Economy Says So.
Conventional wisdom is that fringe candidates get repudiated, à la 1964 and 1972. The story isn’t so simple. Slate, 31 Aug.
-  Why you should be skeptical of wacky new studies about what sways elections. Vox, 9 Sep.
-  Why Does the Replication Crisis Seem Worse in Psychology?
The same problems are facing other fields, too. Here’s why you hear about it most in psychology. Slate, 3 Oct.
-  The Polls of the Future Are Reproducible and Open Source.
They’re following the scientific push toward transparency, and they’ll put everything else out of business. Slate, 1 Nov.
-  Be skeptical when polls show the presidential race swinging wildly. Vox, 6 Nov.
-  What Are the Chances Your Vote Matters?
A state-by-state ranking of how likely it is that your vote swings the election. (But you should still vote!) Slate, 7 Nov.
-  Trump Beat Romney by 2 Points.
That’s what won him the election. Here’s why we didn’t know it would happen. Slate, 10 Nov.
-  Stop Saying the Election Was Rigged.
Trump’s win was always an option, and the theories suggesting otherwise aren’t based on facts. Slate, 22 Nov.
-  19 Lessons for Political Scientists From the 2016 Election.
The ground game is overrated, the parties don’t decide (and neither do sharks), and other things we’ll need to rethink going forward. Slate, 8 Dec.
-  The Electoral College magnifies the power of white voters. Vox, 17 Dec. (with Pierre-Antoine Kremp)
-  The Bad Research Behind the Bogus Claim That North Carolina Is No Longer a Democracy.
No, North Korea isn’t more democratic than the Tar Heel State. Slate, 4 Jan.
-  Did Trump Win Because His Name Was First on the Ballot?
It might technically be possible, but it’s not probable. Slate, 28 Feb.
-  Stop Saying White Mortality Is Rising.
It’s an argument that relies on misinterpreting the data. Slate, 28 Mar. (with Jonathan Auerbach)
-  A Memoir of Chronic Fatigue Illustrates the Failures of Medical Research. New Yorker, 19 July.
-  We Need to Move Beyond Election-Focused Polling.
Polling didn’t fail us in 2016, but what happened made polling’s flaws more apparent. Here’s how to fix that. Slate, 5 Sep. (with David Rothschild)
-  Science Is Imperfect. We Should Admit That.
One prominent research journal just updated its description to explain why it won’t be perfect--and that’s great. Slate, 10 Oct.
-  Can You Use This Data Set to Find Serial Killers?:
The New Yorker’s recent piece on the Murder Accountability Project was fascinating. It also led us to look closely at the data it uses—and we have some advice for would-be serial killer detectors. Slate, 14 Dec. (with Michael Maltz)
-  Can You Criticize Science (or Do Science) Without Looking Like an Obsessive? Maybe Not.
We need to normalize the pursuit of accuracy as a good-intentioned piece of the scientific puzzle. Slate, 26 Mar.
-  Everyone Is Missing the Point About Brian Wansink and P-Hacking.
There are more crucial lessons to learn from the replication crisis. Slate, 8 Oct.
-  Why the 2018 Midterms May Have Been Bluer Than You Think.
The wave looks like it was real, even in places where the candidates didn’t win. Slate, 12 Nov.
-  The Experiments Are Fascinating. But Nobody Can Repeat Them.
New York Times, 19 Nov.
-  What Statistics Can't Tell Us in the Fight over Affirmative Action at Harvard.
Boston Review, 14 Jan. (with Sharad Goel and Daniel Ho)