Click below for links.

• [2023] How Academic Fraudsters Get Away With It. Chronicle of Higher Education, 27 June.

• [2023] The Statistics That Come Out of Nowhere. The Atlantic, 12 Mar. (with Ray Fisman and Matthew Stephenson)

• [2022] How Abortion Became One of the Most Polarizing Issues in America. Smerconish, 11 Jul. (with David Weakliem)

• [2021] How “Social Penumbras” Explain Shifts in Attitudes Toward Different Social Groups. Behavioral Scientist, 3 May. (with Yotam Margalit)

• [2021] We still don’t know how many people are infected with covid. We can find out. Washington Post, 25 Jan.

• [2020] An Election Forecaster Reflects: We Have Too Many Polls. Wired, 5 Nov.

• [2020] Is Your Chart a Detective Story? Or a Police Report? Wired, 25 Oct. (with Jessica Hullman)

• [2020] A New Approach to Getting Real-Time Coronavirus Stats. Slate, 27 Apr.

• [2019] What Statistics Can't Tell Us in the Fight over Affirmative Action at Harvard. Boston Review, 14 Jan. (with Sharad Goel and Daniel Ho)

• [2018] The Experiments Are Fascinating. But Nobody Can Repeat Them. New York Times, 19 Nov.

• [2018] Why the 2018 Midterms May Have Been Bluer Than You Think. The wave looks like it was real, even in places where the candidates didn’t win. Slate, 12 Nov.

• [2018] Everyone Is Missing the Point About Brian Wansink and P-Hacking. There are more crucial lessons to learn from the replication crisis. Slate, 8 Oct.

• [2018] Can You Criticize Science (or Do Science) Without Looking Like an Obsessive? Maybe Not. We need to normalize the pursuit of accuracy as a good-intentioned piece of the scientific puzzle. Slate, 26 Mar.

• [2017] Can You Use This Data Set to Find Serial Killers?: The New Yorker’s recent piece on the Murder Accountability Project was fascinating. It also led us to look closely at the data it uses—and we have some advice for would-be serial killer detectors. Slate, 14 Dec. (with Michael Maltz)

• [2017] Science Is Imperfect. We Should Admit That. One prominent research journal just updated its description to explain why it won’t be perfect--and that’s great. Slate, 10 Oct.

• [2017] We Need to Move Beyond Election-Focused Polling. Polling didn’t fail us in 2016, but what happened made polling’s flaws more apparent. Here’s how to fix that. Slate, 5 Sep. (with David Rothschild)

• [2017] A Memoir of Chronic Fatigue Illustrates the Failures of Medical Research. New Yorker, 19 July.

• [2017] Stop Saying White Mortality Is Rising. It’s an argument that relies on misinterpreting the data. Slate, 28 Mar. (with Jonathan Auerbach)

• [2017] Did Trump Win Because His Name Was First on the Ballot? It might technically be possible, but it’s not probable. Slate, 28 Feb.

• [2017] The Bad Research Behind the Bogus Claim That North Carolina Is No Longer a Democracy. No, North Korea isn’t more democratic than the Tar Heel State. Slate, 4 Jan.

• [2016] The Electoral College magnifies the power of white voters. Vox, 17 Dec. (with Pierre-Antoine Kremp)

• [2016] 19 Lessons for Political Scientists From the 2016 Election. The ground game is overrated, the parties don’t decide (and neither do sharks), and other things we’ll need to rethink going forward. Slate, 8 Dec.

• [2016] Stop Saying the Election Was Rigged. Trump’s win was always an option, and the theories suggesting otherwise aren’t based on facts. Slate, 22 Nov.

• [2016] Trump Beat Romney by 2 Points. That’s what won him the election. Here’s why we didn’t know it would happen. Slate, 10 Nov.

• [2016] What Are the Chances Your Vote Matters? A state-by-state ranking of how likely it is that your vote swings the election. (But you should still vote!) Slate, 7 Nov.

• [2016] Be skeptical when polls show the presidential race swinging wildly. Vox, 6 Nov.

• [2016] The Polls of the Future Are Reproducible and Open Source. They’re following the scientific push toward transparency, and they’ll put everything else out of business. Slate, 1 Nov.

• [2016] Why Does the Replication Crisis Seem Worse in Psychology? The same problems are facing other fields, too. Here’s why you hear about it most in psychology. Slate, 3 Oct.

• [2016] Why you should be skeptical of wacky new studies about what sways elections. Vox, 9 Sep.

• [2016] Trump-Clinton Probably Won’t Be a Landslide. The Economy Says So. Conventional wisdom is that fringe candidates get repudiated, à la 1964 and 1972. The story isn’t so simple. Slate, 31 Aug.

• [2016] Trump’s Up 3! Clinton’s Up 9! Why you shouldn’t be fooled by polling bounces. Slate, 5 Aug. (with David Rothschild)

• [2016] Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets. Brexit, Trump--the once-reliable prediction markets have misfired of late. Here’s why. Slate, 12 July. (with David Rothschild)

• [2016] Texit Ain’t Brexit. Slate, 29 June.

• [2016] Scientists aren't superheroes -- failure is a valid result. Guardian, 8 June.

• [2016] Science Needs to Learn How to Fail So It Can Succeed. Wired, 23 Mar.

• [2016] The Power of the “Power Pose.” Amy Cuddy’s famous finding is the latest example of scientific overreach. Slate, 19 Jan. (with Kaiser Fung)

• [2015] Does Standing Lead to Weight Loss? Daily Beast, 7 Dec. (with Kaiser Fung)

• [2015] How Effective Are Anti-Smoking Ads? Daily Beast, 23 Nov. (with Kaiser Fung)

• [2015] Is the Death Rate Really Increasing for Middle-Aged White Americans? I ran the numbers, and the story isn’t as simple as it seems. Slate, 11 Nov.

• [2015] How Drug Companies Game the Placebo Effect. Daily Beast, 3 Nov. (with Kaiser Fung)

• [2015] Ta-Nehisi Coates, David Brooks, and the ‘Street Code’ of Journalism. Daily Beast, 19 Oct. (with Kaiser Fung)

• [2015] Debunking the Great ‘Selfies Are More Deadly Than Shark Attacks’ Myth. Daily Beast, 5 Oct. (with Kaiser Fung)

• [2015] Banks Want Robots to Do Their Hiring. Daily Beast, 27 Sep. (with Kaiser Fung)

• [2014] The Paradox of Racism. Why the new book by the New York Times’ Nicholas Wade is both plausible and preposterous. Slate, 8 May.

• [2013] To Be Born on a Christmas Morn. New York Times, 23 Dec.

• [2013] Childhood Intervention and Earnings. Symposium Magazine, 3 Nov.

• [2013] Science Journalism and the Art of Expressing Uncertainty. Symposium Magazine, 4 Aug.

• [2013] Too Good to Be True. Statistics may say that women wear red when they’re fertile . . . but you can’t always trust statistics. Slate, 24 July.

• [2013] Sorry, Wrong Number. Symposium Magazine, 8 July.

• [2013] Rich States, Poor States. New York Times, 10 June.

• [2013] How Many Vietnam Veterans Are Still Alive? New York Times, 18 Mar.

• [2013] How Fast We Slow Down Running Longer Distances. New York Times, 18 Mar.

• [2013] The Average American Knows How Many People? New York Times, 18 Feb.

• [2013] I Pick, Something That Ends in 'N.' New York Times, 28 Jan.

• [2012] Red Versus Blue in a New Light. New York Times, 12 Nov.

• [2012] Refusing to Vote Either Red or Blue. New York Daily News, 8 Nov.

• [2012] What Too Close to Call Really Means. New York Times, 30 Oct.

• [2011] Do We Hate the Rich or Don’t We? New York Times, 22 Dec.

• [2011] The Best Books on How Americans Vote. Five Books, 3 Jan.

• [2011] Why Are Primaries Hard to Predict? New York Times, 29 Nov.

• [2011] Why America Isn't as Polarized as You Think. Atlantic, 8 July.

• [2011] How Baseball Is Different From Politics. Atlantic, 20 June.

• [2011] A Statistician Rereads Bill James. Baseball Prospectus, 5 May.

• [2011] The Best Books on Statistics. Five Books, 3 Jan.

• [2009] Over Time, a Gay Marriage Groundswell. New York Times, 21 Aug. (with Jeff Lax and Justin Phillips)

• [2009] The Senate’s Health Care Calculations. New York Times, 18 Nov. (with Nate Silver and Daniel Lee)

• [2009] Why abortion consensus is unlikely: The strange dynamics of this hot-button issue. New York Daily News, 8 Nov. (with John Sides)

• [2009] Stories and Stats. The truth about Obama’s victory wasn’t in the papers. Boston Review, 12 Sep. (with John Sides)

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