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Matching entries from Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Subtleties with measurement-error models for the evaluation of wacky claims

A few days ago I discussed the evaluation of somewhat-plausible claims that are somewhat supported by theory and somewhat supported by statistical evidence. One point I raised was that an implausibly large estimate of effect size can be cause for...

Jim Campbell argues that Larry Bartels's "Unequal Democracy" findings are not robust

A few years ago Larry Bartels presented this graph, a version of which latter appeared in his book Unequal Democracy: Larry looked at the data in a number of ways, and the evidence seemed convincing that, at least in the...

2010: What happened?

A lot of people are asking, How could the voters have swung so much in two years? And, why didn't Obama give Americans a better sense of his long-term economic plan in 2009, back when he still had a political...

A note to John

Jeff the Productivity Sapper points me to this insulting open letter to Nate Silver written by pollster John Zogby. I'll go through bits of Zogby's note line by line. (Conflict of interest warning: I have collaborated with Nate and I...

The greatest works of statistics never published

The other day I came across a paper that referred to Charlie Geyer's 1991 paper, "Estimating Normalizing Constants and Reweighting Mixtures in Markov Chain Monte Carlo." I expect that part or all of this influential article was included in some...

My second interaction with Eliot Spitzer

I've only met Eliot Spitzer once, back when he was the state Attorney General. I was part of a group presenting the findings of a study of racial patterns of police stops in the city. (See here for a writeup...

Overly-charitable explanations of biased perceptions

John Sides and I posted something yesterday on the yawning gap between economic perceptions of Democrats and Republicans, to which we received some interesting comments (see also here and here) that I'd like to reply to....

Red and Blue Economies?

From "the fundamentals are still strong" to "the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression" . . . from "the economy doesn't really needs saving" to "the crash of 2009" . . . from crisis to "glimmers of hope" ....

Displaying regression coefficients and standardized coefficients

Manoel Galdino pointed me to a discussion on the Polmeth list on the topic of reporting p-values and regression coefficients. (The polmeth listserv doesn't seem to have a way to link to threads, but if you go here for March...

Partisanship: good or bad?

Nancy Rosenblum posted an article based on her recent book, "On the Side of the Angels: An Appreciation of Parties and Partisanship," which she describes as her "analysis of antipartyism and attempt at rehabilitation." Following up at Cato Unbound is...

Rich voter, poor voter, white voter, black voter

A couple weeks ago I posted an analysis of rich and poor voters in rich and poor states from exit polls in 2008, and a commenter ("Audacious Epigone") picked up on Larry Bartels's observation that, among whites, the Republican advantage...

Income inequality and different ideas over time about the ability of presidents to intervene successfully in the economy

Lane Kenworthy writes (link from here and here): The notion that political parties are a key determinant of income inequality has been around for a long time. I suspect many non-academics take its truth for granted. Among American scholars, the...

More on red/blue/rich/poor in 2008

After this, here's more, again from exit poll crosstabs that Jared pulled off the CNN website: Difference in McCain vote share, comparing people in each state with family incomes over and under $50,000 (thus, states that are high on this...

Red/blue/rich/poor: 2008 update

In our book, we discussed how the rich-state, poor-state divide was larger among the rich than the poor--or, to put it another way, how rich people in states such as Mississippi are much more Republican than poor people in Mississippi,...

The success of models predicting the election outcome from the economy

Mark Schmitt writes: The long election cycle featured as many theories about how the election would turn out as there were presidential candidates in those first debates in 2007. Let's give some of the theories a post-final-exam assessment. He discusses...

Whassup with the white working class?

A colleague asks, How do you deal with the following from Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixeira's Brookings paper: Indeed, just how far the Democrat party fell in the white working class' eyes over this time period can be seen by...

"Beyond 'Fixed Versus Random Effects'"

Jeff pointed me to this paper by Brandon "not Larry" Bartels on using multilevel modeling for time series cross-sectional data. I agree with Bartels's recommendations, which are: - Use a multilevel model to allow intercepts to vary by groups. This...

Practicing political science without a license, or, all the rants conveniently in a single place

Larry Bartels writes about how "the contemporary electoral landscape, which is less volatile and more partisan than it has been at any time in the past half-century or more." Larry's presentation is clean and well illustrated by graphs, adding nicely...

Those silly voters

Rick Shenkman reminds us that voters are "grossly ignorant" about many issues. Now that the Cold War is over, we don't have to worry about voters not knowing about "throw weights" and such, but I think it's still probably a...

Education and the hardening of political attitudes

Henry presents another example of more educated voters being more ideological: The above graph (from Larry Bartels) shows the probability that liberals or conservatives agree with the statement that income inequality between rich and poor people has increased. The two...

Who are the "values voters"?

Larry Bartels wrote an excellent op-ed on rich and poor voters, ringing many of the bells that we strike in our forthcoming book. Bartels writes: Do small-town, working-class voters cast ballots on the basis of social issues? Yes, but less...

Do the Democrats represent the rich?

Boris points to this post by Megan McArdle which discusses some of the political implications of the Democrats doing best among lower-income voters but winning the states and congressional districts where more of the higher-income Americans live. As McArdle puts...

Krugman and Bartels on politics and income inequality

I noticed a link by Tyler Cowen: A few days ago Paul Krugman argued (Times Select, or here is a Mark Thoma summary) that it matters a great deal which political party rules in the United States. Republicans tend to...

More on Larry Bartels's analysis of Democrats, Republicans, and the economy

After seeing Larry Bartels present his findings on how the economy has done better, for the poor and middle class, under Democratic presidents than Republican presidents, I was puzzled. Not that it couldn't be true, but it seemed a little...

Larry Bartels on income, voting, and the economy

Larry Bartels spoke in our seminar the other day and talked about this paper on Democrats, Republicans, and the economy. It started with this graph, which showed that incomes have grown faster under Democratic presidents, especially on the low end...

Homer Simpson and mixture models

In his paper, Homer Gets a Tax Cut: Inequality and Public Policy in the American Mind, Larry Bartels studies the mystery of why most Americans support repeal of the estate tax, even at the same time that they believe the...

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