Christopher Uggen reports.
I’m surprised the difference is so small. I would’ve thought the crime rate was something like 5 times higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis. I guess Minneapolis must have some rough neighborhoods. Or maybe it’s just that I don’t have a good framework for thinking about crime statistics.
People from St. Paul refer to Minneapolis as "Murderopolis" – and while that´s maybe a bit of an overstatement, crime in MN is worth than most people think.
Remember that we're looking at measurements of crime rates, not crime rates themselves. There are two big biases, at least, (1) Detroit can't afford police, and (2) crimes by criminals against other criminals are underreported.
The ratios between the cities (Detroit over Minneapolis) are as follows:
Total violent crime 1.77
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter 8.0
Forcible rape 0.34
Robbery 1.50
Aggravated Assault 2.21
The murder rate in Detroit is 8 times that of Minneapolis. It must be that which dominates our perceptions.
Curiously, forcible rape has a rate almost three times higher (2.92) in Minneapolis than in Detroit, but that doesn't alter the consensus, does it? In fact Minneapolis and Anchorage have the highest rates of forcible rape in the nation (1.08 and 1.0 per 100,000, respectively).
I once looked at imprisonment rates by state by race as of 1997. Surprisingly, the highest black imprisonment rates were in three moderately liberal upper Midwest states: Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
My guess is that back in the 1960s, these states, with their large Scandinavian and German populations and social democratic traditions, had quite liberal welfare laws, and thus attracted the most work-averse blacks from the South.
There seems to be a vague pattern of blacks doing better in more conservative states, such as Texas.
Sorry, my previous comment turns out not to be terribly accurate. I went back and looked at the data, and it turns out that Minnesota has only an above average black imprisonment rate, not one of the top 3 in the country. Where Minnesota leads the country is in the ratio of its black imprisonment rate to its white imprisonment rate of 31 to 1, compared to about 6 to 1 in Deep South states.
Iowa and Wisconsin both have very high absolute black imprisonment rates and the second and third highest relative black to white imprisonment rate ratios in the country.
I've got all the maps here:
http://vdare.com/sailer/050213_mapping.htm
Edward: homicide is unique on that list in that it cannot be made to go away by lax reporting and standards are almost certainly identical.
Right, attention must be paid to a body with a hole in it. Hence, homicide is the best crime for statistical comparisons across jurisdictions and over time.
Steve, homicide rate is not necessarily a good measure for comparison over time. My guess is that hospitals now are able to save lots of people who would have died 15 or 20 years ago.
Thanks for the link. The FBI's Uniform Crime Reports now includes a "Caution Against Ranking," which explains why it can be tricky to compare crime rates across cities: http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/about/variables_…
For me, the denominator is the big issue. Cities vary in "sprawl," such that some include low-crime neighborhoods on the outskirts that contribute lots of people to the denominator but few crimes to the numerator. Other cities (e.g., St. Louis and New Orleans) fare poorly in comparison, in part because of their more circumscribed boundaries.
"My guess is that hospitals now are able to save lots of people who would have died 15 or 20 years ago."
Right, although firepower has also gone up over time.
"My guess is that back in the 1960s, these states, with their large Scandinavian and German populations and social democratic traditions, had quite liberal welfare laws, and thus attracted the most work-averse blacks from the South."
Your "guess" is that just the lazy, crime seeking blacks from the South migrated to Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the 60s? Really? You're joking aren't you? Or are you really just that hateful?