Jeff, Justin, and I write:
Gay marriage is not going away as a highly emotional, contested issue. Proposition 8, the California ballot measure that bans same-sex marriage, has seen to that, as it winds its way through the federal courts. But perhaps the public has reached a turning point.
And check out the (mildly) dynamic graphics. The picture below is ok but for the full effect you have to click through and play the movie.
And you can look up your (least) favorite state in the chart here:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/08/22/wee…
If Mr. P gets married, perhaps it should be to Multilevel Regression for Statistical Prediction. They have a lot in common, after all.
After I posted that last comment, I realized I missed the boat – and I'm a card-carrying member of the HRC and everything! So now I think if Mister P gets married it should be to Multilevel Regression and Analysis. In Iowa. Or something.
The time scroll is somewhat misleading because there are two 2010 graphs. I was also impressed by the jump from 36% to 45% until I saw the word "assuming".
Skeptical:
I don't remember exactly how we phrased it in the article, but 45% is the best estimate based on recent trends in national polls. Or you can use 50% which comes from the recent CNN poll. 45% is the estimate we think is best supported by the data.