That's an unfortunate phrasing isn't it. Perhaps they should have worded it as a majority of Americans will favor the legalization and acceptance of same-sex marriage. Unless they are predicting a pretty major change in American lifestyles and preferences.
Hi Andrew,
Should your readers be concerned that our prognostication arrived out of thin air (and I can see how Margaret Talbot's excellent New Yorker article might leave that impression), they may wish to see the piece Nate Persily and I wrote on the topic for pollingreport.com.
We make the prediction in that piece, and it is based on an extrapolation from opinion trends that (with the exception of a big dip in support that occurred in the wake of Lawrence v. Texas) have been remarkably steady since polling began on same-sex marriage in the 1990s.
And, yes, let's all revisit this half a decade from now!
Pat Egan
Pat: Thanks for the report. Good stuff. It's too bad that the New Yorker doesn't do hyperlinks.
That's an unfortunate phrasing isn't it. Perhaps they should have worded it as a majority of Americans will favor the legalization and acceptance of same-sex marriage. Unless they are predicting a pretty major change in American lifestyles and preferences.
Hi Andrew,
Should your readers be concerned that our prognostication arrived out of thin air (and I can see how Margaret Talbot's excellent New Yorker article might leave that impression), they may wish to see the piece Nate Persily and I wrote on the topic for pollingreport.com.
We make the prediction in that piece, and it is based on an extrapolation from opinion trends that (with the exception of a big dip in support that occurred in the wake of Lawrence v. Texas) have been remarkably steady since polling began on same-sex marriage in the 1990s.
And, yes, let's all revisit this half a decade from now!
Pat Egan
Pat: Thanks for the report. Good stuff. It's too bad that the New Yorker doesn't do hyperlinks.