Back in April, in an article about partisan perceptions of the economy, John Sides and I wrote:

Democrats feel better about the economy when Democrats are in power, and Republicans feel better when their party rules. What’s striking, though, is how quickly these perceptions can change.

For example, in mid-September, John McCain notoriously said, “The fundamentals of our economy are still strong.” But then in early March, he said that the American people “want to know how we got into this ditch–the worst economic crisis since the great Depression.” Based on these two statements, the slide into the ditch apparently occurred sometime between September 16 and March 3.

Similarly, University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan spent the end of 2008 arguing that the economy is just not that bad, but then changed course in March, writing that “the crash of 2008 did not bother me” but “the crash of 2009 is more worrisome . . . So far productivity has been good in this recession, but 2009’s stock market could well see that changing.”

It’s no surprise that John McCain and Casey Mulligan’s views on the economy differ from those of Rahm Emanuel and Paul Krugman, or for that matter Barack Obama, who just last week was beginning to see “glimmers of hope” in the economy. . . .

I don’t know about John McCain and Barack Obama, but I recently checked on Casey Mulligan, and I’m pleased to report that he does not seem to have shown a partisan tack in his statements about the economy. For example, some recent posts:

Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita Higher than Ever
The BEA reported that real disposable personal income was $2478 per person in May 2009. The only month in U.S. history higher than that was May 2008 ($2499). Based on the recent trends, I [Mulligan] expect that June 2009 (which is almost over) will have the highest real disposable personal income ever.

$592 per person
Compared to a world in which real GDP remained at the (thusfar) all time high (achieved in 2008 Q2), the BEA’s report this morning shows that through 2009 Q1 the U.S. economy had lost $181 billion (measured at 2008 Q4 prices). $181 billion is equivalent to:

– $592 per person, which is equivalent to

– 4.6 days of GDP (that is, we are producing like we took 3 weeks of vacation per year, instead of two)

Mulligan clearly has a partisan perspective, but his take on the economy–that things aren’t going so badly–has been broadly consistent since the fall of 2008. He does not seem to have changed this view or applied any partisan filters in response to the change in power in Washington.

I know nothing about macroeconomics–even less than I know about the EM algorithm (that’s an inside joke; Xiao-Li can explain it to you)–and I am not trying in any way to agree or disagree with Mulligan’s analyses (not that my position on this matter would mean anything, anyway). I just wanted to follow up on my earlier offhand remark that had implied that Mulligan had changed course following the change in administration.