http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2008/04/what_would_rose.html I can understand Paul Krugman's frustration over the level of discourse in the Democratic primary election campaign, but I don't know of any evidence to support the implicit claim in his last sentence: "unless Democrats can get past this self-inflicted... en-us <p>I can understand Paul Krugman's <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/25/opinion/25krugman.html">frustration</a> over the level of discourse in the Democratic primary election campaign, but I don't know of any evidence to support the implicit claim in his last sentence: "unless Democrats can get past this self-inflicted state of confusion, there’s a very good chance that they’ll snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this fall." I pretty much take the general view of political scientists that general election outcomes are pretty much determined by fundamentals--that the voters will get the information needed to realize roughly where Obama (or Clinton) and McCain stand on the key issues and vote accordingly. (See <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bjps1993.pdf">here</a> and <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/HillJackResp.040203.jb.pdf">here</a> for our evidence, including the picture below.)</p> <p><img alt="predisp.png" src="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/mlm/predisp.png" width="598" height="500" /></p> http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2008/04/what_would_rose.html