Income and voting in 2006

Somebody asked us about our “red-state, blue-state” results (the pattern that we found in the 2000 and 2004 elections, in which income and Republican voting are highly correlated in poor states such as Mississippi, moderately correlated in medium states such as Ohio, and not at all correlated in rich states such as Connecticut–hence the title of our paper, “What’s the Matter with Connecticut”; also see pretty picture here), and whether anything similar happened in 2006.

We’re still looking for raw polling data; the closest we could find were these House exit poll results from CNN.com, which are broken down by income and region. Here are the results:

regions06.png

It’s tougher to see this since we don’t have the individual states, but income is indeed more correlated with Republican vote in the South and Midwest, and less so on the coasts, which fits our “red state, blue state” story.. (The income categories from the poll are 0-15,000, 15-30,000, 30-50,000, 50-75,000, 75-100,000, 100-150,000, and 150-200,000, and 200,000+; for sample size reasons we combined the two highest categories.)

1 thought on “Income and voting in 2006

  1. This is a great illustration of the importance of interaction effects, in this case, between region and income for West and Northeast. It would be interesting to switch the x-axis to region and see if that gives us more insight.

    Also, in this sort of analysis, do you usually use averages weighted by population or straight averages over states within a region?

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