Paul Gronke writes,
I conducted the 100 pieces of candy demonstration and it did not work! Why?I made one error that made it possible. Rather than using 80 pieces of small candy and 20 large, I allowed some "medium" (Halloween sized) candy bars.
But the real problem was this: one of the students was vegan and did not want to win. So she purposely chose five of the life savers in order do a "bad" job.
She ended up underestimating and getting closest ... thus winning the candy!!
P.S. The candy demo is described in Section 3 of this paper (and also in my book with Deb Nolan). I met Paul at this workshop on teaching statistics to political science students. One thing I remember about this workshop is that the participants, who taught political science at small colleges, seemed to have about 4 kids each.
Very funny, Gelman. I have 22 in one section and 24 in the other.
And 6 in my class on public opinion.
As always, kudos on the book and the blog.
Paul,
No, I meant 4 children each, not 4 students per class!