http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2006/02/fooled_by_rando.html Naseem Taleb's publisher sent me a copy of "Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and the markets" to review. It's an important topic, and the book is written in a charming style--I'll try to respond in... en-us <p><a href="http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/">Naseem Taleb</a>'s publisher sent me a copy of "Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and the markets" to review. It's an important topic, and the book is written in a charming style--I'll try to respond in kind, with some miscellaneous comments.</p> http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2006/02/fooled_by_rando.html <p><i>Despise "beyond anything on this planet"?? Isn't this a bit extreme? What about, for example, hit-and-run drivers? I despise them even more.</i></p> <p>Don't underestimate the damage done by moralizers. F'rex, I'd chalk the Depression up to them more than anyone else. Cutting liquidity drastically to teach the markets a "lesson" when they've been too exuberant is a silly notion that our last Fed Chairman managed to get beyond. A hit&run driver can only cause damage to a relative handful; misguided do-gooders can be massively destructive. </p> http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/000399.html#008290 <p><i>Taleb describes the overconfidence of many "experts."</i></p> <p>BTW, I haven't read Tetlock's "Expert Political Judgment" yet (gotta finish "The Undercover economist" first), but it looks damned good and appears to cover the same ground in some depth.</p> http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/000399.html#008291