An analysis of the NYPD’s stop-and-frisk policy in the context of claims of racial bias

Recent studies by police departments and researchers confirm that police stop racial and ethnic minority citizens more often than whites, relative to their proportions in the population. However, it has been argued that stop rates more accurately reflect rates of crimes committed by each ethnic group, or that stop rates reflect elevated rates in specific social areas such as neighborhoods or precincts. Most of the research on stop rates and police-citizen interactions has focused on traffic stops, and analyses of pedestrian stops are rare. In this paper, we analyze data from 125,000 pedestrian stops by the New York Police Department over a fifteen-month period. We disaggregate stops by police precinct, and compare stop rates by racial and ethnic group controlling for previous race-specific arrest rates. We use hierarchical multilevel models to adjust for precinct-level variability, thus directly addressing the question of geographic heterogeneity that arises in the analysis of pedestrian stops. We find that persons of African and Hispanic descent were stopped more frequently than whites, even after controlling for precinct variability and race-specific estimates of crime participation.

Here’s the paper (by Jeff Fagan, Alex Kiss, and myself) with the details. The work came out of a project we did with the New York State Attorney General’s Office a few years ago.

If you’re interested in this topic, you might also take a look at Nicola Persico’s page on police stops data. (Our dataset had confidentiality restrictions so we couldn’t place it on Nicola’s site.)

1 thought on “An analysis of the NYPD’s stop-and-frisk policy in the context of claims of racial bias

  1. intriguing paper! my only beef (which is unlikely to challenge any of the substantive conclusions) concerns this bit:
    "we are using past arrests as a proxy for the crime rate and for police expectations about demographics of perpetrators." crime and arrest represent quite different phenomena, particularly as regards racial bias. just my two cents, but … i'd recommend abandoning the "proxy for the crime rate" line and simply state that it represents police expectations about perpetrators.

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