There’s a little debate going on in baseball right now about whether decisions should be made using statistics (a sabermetrician is a person who studies baseball statistics) or instincts. Two books are widely considered illustrative of the two sides of the debate. Moneyball, by Michael Lewis, is about the Oakland A’s and their general manager Billy Beane. Beane, with the second-lowest payroll in baseball in 2002, set out to put together an affordable team of undervalued players, using a lot of scouting and statistics. Three nights in August, by Buzz Bissinger, is about St. Louis Cardinals’ manager Tony La Russa, and is seen by some as a counter to Moneyball, with La Russa relying much more on guts when making decisions.
There are two problems with this. One is that the distinction just isn’t that sharp: Billy Beane also makes some gut-based decisions, and Tony La Russa looks at statistics. The other is that, as a general manager, Billy Beane makes more long-term, far-reaching decisions and has a lot more time to make them. It makes sense to look at a lot of statistics before deciding which players to sign. Tony La Russa is a manager, (i.e., coach), which means he’s making lots of quick decisions. Go for the steal? Bunt? Fastball, curveball, slider? You can’t be running regressions for each game-time decision. Baseball may be a slow game, but it’s not that slow. Any good manager goes into a game having studied both teams’ stats, and this knowledge surely affects decisions made during the game, but the immediacy of coaching-type decisions, compared to managerial decisions, just doesn’t allow for the same type of analytical methods.
GO SOX!!
White or Red?
Bill James is one of my heroes and is one of the reasons I went into statistics. I remember reading his books every year in the mid-80s. What impressed me the most about him was that, after coming up with some hypothesis, he'd gather data to evaluate it. As compared to other sportswriters who, even if very intelligent, would tend to consider hypotheses based on available data without any thought that they could refine their ideas.
Sam makes a very good point about the distinction about Sabremetrics and Gut-metrics, but doesn't take it far enough. Last time I checked, Sabremetrics didn't really deal in statistical analyses for mid-game tactical decisions. (Now, maybe in the intervening years since I followed Sabremetrics, that has changed). So, Sabremetrics doesn't even help LaRussa during a game.