Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Polls

On January 19, 2005 the now well-known Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (EM) organizations published a report that evaluated their exit-poll system for the National Election Pool (NEP). In a nutshell the report concluded that the discrepancies with the exit-polls and the actual vote tally was because those who voted for Bush were less likely than those who voted for Kerry to respond to the pollsters. This post-hoc theorizing is being challenged by a group of statisticians who argue that ”The required pattern of exit poll participation by Kerry and Bush voters to satisfy the E/M exit poll data defies empirical experience and common sense under any assumed scenario.” (p.12)

What would happen if this same situation happens in another country like Mexico? Think about it…

1 thought on “Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Polls

  1. Before jumping to contusions, please consider an alternative 'conspiracy(?)' theory…

    http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/wambough/05010

    This looks a lot more plausible, since the MSM bias is well enough documented, not to mention their deliberate misreporting of events in favor of the DNC as evidenced by poor Mr. Rather's untimely "retirement" to just cite the most infamous example.

    Not only is it plausible, but statistical analysis of actual votes vs. exit-polls could be spun to indicate (falsely) that the vote tallies were the problem.

    You know, like those pesky butterfly ballots that everyone blames the GOP for, when they were designed by local Dems in conjunction with the DNC.

    In fact, though they are different situations, the methodology is strikingly similar. The inserting deliberate flaws that can later be used in their favor seems to be a recurring theme. I suggest we look for more of those, and not allow them to hijack the debate by keeping it focused as far away from the source of the problem as possible.

    It's a lot easier for a biased clatch of networks with national reach and a semblance of credibility to massage exit poles, which are NOT subject to stringent regulations or under lock and key, than for anyone to pull off a national manipulation of ballots, which are.

Comments are closed.